In his book, Alex Duff describes how Brentford FC rose from lower league underdogs to the Premier League by utilising sound coaching and quantitative data analysis.
In 1978, Duff begins his first season-long follow of Brentford, then a third-division struggling club in an antiquated stadium. Owner Ron Noades had consented, by 2005, to transfer ownership of the company to supporters, provided that they also assumed responsibility for the company’s £5.5 million overdraft.
One of their fans an Oxford University physics graduate called Matthew Benham was making millions of pounds from professional gambling and threw in a £500,000 lifeline to help keep the club afloat.
Benham sets out to see if the mathematics he has used to beat the bookmakers with his Smartodds company could improve Brentford’s performance on the pitch.
Benham has huge success with his company, and he takes a bigger share of the club, and his quantitative analysts ‘quants’ are increasingly employed in the running of the football club.
The club is able to make better decisions thanks to the statistical models. Benham’s “quants” helped Brentford by enhancing performance and by generating revenue on the transfer market, which somewhat offset Benham’s yearly loss.
Due to their purchase low, sell high philosophy, Brentford was one of the most successful teams in all of Europe. Between 2015 and 2021, their net gain from transfers was estimated to be around £100 million.
After relocating to the Brentford Community Stadium in 2020, Brentford was elevated to the Premier League in 2021, where they ended in mid-table during their inaugural year. It was evident from Benham and Brentford’s work that data can enhance a team’s performance.
Academic research has confirmed a strong link between higher wage bills and superior performance in the Premier League: so even if you have smarter back-room staff with clearer insights, you will tend to lose against the teams that can afford the most skilful players. However, Benham has demonstrated that if you can apply brain power you can to some extent bridge the financial gap.
Benham’s extensive background in the gambling industry presents an unpleasant element of Brentford’s ascent. Addiction to gambling has a very negative effect on society. Remarkably, Ivan Toney, the outstanding striker for Brentford, was found to have a gambling addiction and received a £50,000 fine in addition to an eight-month sporting ban.
Benham is one of the least wealthy owners in the Premier League, but his team have so far been able to compete at the top level for three seasons. A question remains whether Benham’s approach can sustain the club in the Premier League in the long term. He may ultimately have to seek outside investment for Brentford to survive at the top level.
Duff has written a fascinating and educational potted history of Brentford FC, but Benham’s data-driven football success story—the English version of Michael Lewis’s “Moneyball,” which tells the tale of how Oakland Athletics used statistics to win baseball games—is the book’s real significance.
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