I know it isn’t all Newcastle United fans.
As it is so easy to generalise.
However, I do think a lot of Newcastle United fans do struggle with this.
Let me explain.
I want you to consider two sets of Premier League matches this season.
A trio of Newcastle United games early on in August and September.
Then these last three NUFC Premier League matches.
So we have:
Newcastle 1 Southampton 0
Newcastle 2 Tottenham 1
Wolves 1 Newcastle 2
Then we have had most recently:
Newcastle 1 Man City 1
Everton 0 Newcastle 0
Newcastle 0 Brighton 1
My conclusions?
The obvious one for all Newcastle United fans, is that Eddie Howe’s team picked up nine points from the earlier three games, whilst only two points from the most recent trio of matches.
However, let us scratch below the surface a little bit.
One of the best indicators for me in terms of attacking play, of how well your team has played overall, is how many touches your players have in the opposition penalty area.
In the six matches above those stats were:
Newcastle 14 Southampton 48
Newcastle 14 Tottenham 50
Wolves 27 Newcastle 23
Newcastle 25 Man City 40
Everton 13 Newcastle 42
Newcastle 45 Brighton 12
In that earlier trio of matches (and wins!), Newcastle United had 51 touches of the ball by their players in the opposition penalty area, whilst their three opposition teams had 125 collectively at the other end.
Whilst in these last three matches where NUFC have picked up only two points, Newcastle United with 112 touches by their players of the ball in the opposition box, whilst their opponents have had only 65 at the other end.
I don’t go along with the idea that Newcastle United were terrible in those earlier three matches, especially when have to play 70+ minutes with 10 men against Southampton. Eddie Howe’s team weren’t great overall in those three early games/wins I would say, mediocre.
In these last three games, I see a lot of Newcastle United fans bizarrely, in my opinion, saying the team were poor, rubbish, or far worse…
Even the excellent Man City performance is now distorted, simply tagged on as part of three games with a return of only two points. This is despite only ourselves, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool having managed to prevent Manchester City winning Premier League matches since 16 December 2023.
Pep Guardiola and his players have a record across those last 29 Premier League matches of:
Played 29 Won 24 Drawn 5 Lost 0
Yet Newcastle United playing so well and getting a deserved draw, which could even have been a win because we had our chances, yet now somehow pitched in by the media and many NUFC supporters as part of a recent disappointing set of matches and performances.
On balance of play, getting into that opposition box, chances created and so on, I think Newcastle United ‘deserved’ to have picked up seven, possibly nine (considering just how well we played and got into attacking areas against all powerful Man City), points from the last three matches. That is not to say that to an extent Brighton also ‘deserved’ their win on Saturday, as well as Everton ‘deserving’ their draw. These last two matches the opposition defended well, rode their luck at times, whilst Newcastle United failed to punish them. These last two games seeing United with a penalty and at least four moments of one-on-ones, yet failing to score a single game across over three hours of football.
You look back at that set of three earlier games/wins and Newcastle United with far fewer clear chances created, far fewer touches of the ball in the opposition box whilst their opponents had far more, yet Newcastle win all three games scoring five goals and the opposition only two goals. Those two conceded goals very much blips amongst generally excellent defending.
A lot of Newcastle United fans (and those of other teams, as well as the media) just can’t/won’t accept that fine margins play such a massive part in football matches, which is what makes football both the greatest AND at times most frustrating sport of all.
In other team sports such as rugby, the dominant/better team pretty much always wins. Not so football. Those fine margins of who takes their chances and who doesn’t, keepers having a blinder, the ball taking a deflection and going on, hitting the woodwork when an inch the other way and it is a goal, all these things conspire to decide so many results.
The six matches outlined above, Newcastle United could easily have won all six of them, just as they could have easily lost all six.
Those clinical finishes against Southampton and Spurs, those long-range strikes against Wolves. Yet collectively far easier chances and situations against Everton and Brighton especially (and the likes of Longstaff’s chance against Man City), yet only one penalty goal to show for our far better attacking threat, in terms of getting into situations especially.
What I think, is that ninth place with 12 points from three wins, three draws and two defeats (plus winning the two cup matches) is probably what Newcastle United have deserved so far, based on their performances.
The fine margins, luck and so on, evening out over these opening couple of months of the season.
I think we have a decent platform to build on.
My belief is that apart from the finishing and the decision making in the final third at times, this last trio of performances have been good to very good. Newcastle United have been performing much better in their general play and the control of matches, so they just need to keep that going, build on it and continue to improve, as well as of course start to take our chances and get more people in the box to take some of the load off Isak and Gordon when it comes to responsibility for scoring goals.
If the overall performances are of this recent kind of level, I then think we can compete in all of these next three matches, despite this over the top gloom that has overwhelmed so many Newcastle United fans.
Like Man City, both Chelsea and Arsenal will look to attack Newcastle United and if NUFC play as they did against Guardiola’s side, why shouldn’t fans think we have every chance of proving competitive in these games?
Then it will be down to Eddie Howe’s side defending well, taking chances that come our way, plus hoping fine margins work in our favour.
Newcastle United have won both of their last two home games against Chelsea, drawn (in normal time) on two of their last three visits to Stamford Bridge, whilst Eddie Howe’s players have defeated Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal in two of the last three meetings at St James’ Park.
It won’t be easy but I find it so strange that certain Newcastle United fans are wanting to take it for granted Eddie Howe will make it three defeats in a row at St James’ Park, when for over nine months there wasn’t a single one.
Let’s go full-on into these next three matches, both Newcastle United players AND fans. We can do it.
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