Bryan Broaddus, a former NFL Super Bowl-winning scout, describes the NFL as “a strange lady.” He means that most of the time, the season does not go as expected.
If it were that simple, the majority Super Bowl pick would win the championship every season, and we’d all stop debating who should be there. Why bother putting a bet? Why bother watching the game? The answer is simple: the NFL’s unpredictability is one of its most appealing qualities.
One of the most exciting aspects of being a fan is not knowing which teams will surprise you by losing (or winning). The NFL’s parity is at an all-time high, and the 2024 season has already produced a slew of unexpected results. The Cowboys are on this list, and not for good reasons.
Today, I’d want to take a look across the league and highlight some interesting statistics that have jumped out to me throughout the first four weeks. Tennessee, Miami, Seattle, and Detroit have all played four games, with the exception of the Monday Night Football double-header.
The Undefeateds
This section is intended for teams that unexpectedly finished the first quarter of the season undefeated. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only club left off this list, as a 4-0 record with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback is not surprising at all.
The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers are two notable teams that lost their unbeaten status in Week 3. Could the first team on this list join them post-Monday Night Football?
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks, led by veteran quarterback Geno Smith, are 3-0 and face the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. When they encounter Dan Campbell’s group, the train may come to a halt.
Seattle’s opponents this season had a combined record of 4-7, having faced a rookie-led Broncos club, winning a close game against the Patriots, and defeating a Tua-less Dolphins team.
The 12th man will not be present in Detroit, and the Seahawks’ undefeated streak could come to an end.
Minnesota Vikings
The only other team besides the Chiefs guaranteed a perfect record until week 5 is the Minnesota Vikings. Powered by a resurgent Sam Darnold, the Vikings sit atop the NFC with a 4-0 record.
Unlike the Seahawks, the Vikings’ wins are over legitimate contenders. Kevin O’Connell’s bunch has taken down the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, and the Green Bay Packers, along with a dominant win over the New York Giants.
They’ve also managed to do this with star TE TJ Hockenson sidelined with injury. Minnesota has shocked us all early on.
Surprise Division Leaders
This section is reserved for teams who aren’t undefeated, but who are still unexpectedly leading their respective divisions.
Washington Commanders
The NFC East may return as the NFC Least in 2024, since the Commanders, headed by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, have risen to first place after only four games.
We can make all the jokes we want, but Daniels, a Heisman winner, has brought his talent to the NFL and is playing well for new head coach Dan Quinn. Washington started slowly, losing to Tampa Bay in the opener, but has since gone on a three-game winning streak.
The Commanders, led by Daniels, have scored 21, 38, and 42 points since their opening-week loss. This included victories against the Bengals and Cardinals. Don’t look now, but the NFC East champion may not be the Cowboys or Eagles.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Another unexpected division leader is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals and Ravens have underwhelmed and are 1-3 and 2-2 on the season, respectively.
Pittsburgh has deployed strong defence and effective, albeit unspectacular, offence. Russell Wilson has yet to play for the Steelers due to a lingering calf ailment. Justin Fields has stepped in amicably.
Fields leads the Steelers’ offence in passing and rushing yards, and while he isn’t playing like a first-round choice, he is doing enough to win games.
Pittsburgh will host the Cowboys in week five.
Random Surprises
This area is for general observations about the NFL.
Cowboys’ Home Record
The Dallas Cowboys are 2-2 this season after defeating the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football last week. Their record isn’t surprising, but when you analyse where the losses happened, it may raise some concerns.
Mike McCarthy’s team was unbeaten at home last season until a disaster in the Wildcard game against the Green Bay Packers. Their home dominance was anticipated to continue this offseason, but they have been outplayed in both games.
First, the New Orleans Saints defeated them 44-19. The Baltimore Ravens came in and rushed for 274 yards in a 28-25 victory. Don’t let the final score deceive you. Baltimore was leading 28-6 at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
We all anticipated an unbeaten home streak would end, but it’s not the losses that matter. It is the way of defeat. Dallas was pummelling into the ground in each of these losses.
They’d best get in shape because relying primarily on road victories won’t go them very far in the modern NFL.
Trouble in San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers players who send postcards to family members throughout the country should use a Red Cross-shaped stamp. The 49ers are one of the league’s most banged-up teams, which has contributed to their two losses.
Kyle Shanahan’s club has Super Bowl hopes, but they must overcome a slew of ailments to even enter the playoffs. Expected to be one of the NFL’s most powerful teams, they’ve already lost DT Javon Hargrave for the season, with RB Christian McCaffrey not long after.
The injuries to wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and linebacker Fred Warner have also caused concern among fans. Shanahan is an excellent coach. They will recover and be fine, possibly just in time to face the Cowboys in week 8.
Rainy Days in Jacksonville
What’s happening with the Jacksonville Jaguars? They have a newly paid quarterback, and if we follow Dak Prescott’s logic, Trevor Lawrence’s salary should be enough to motivate him to overcome all of the Jaguars’ problems.
These inadequacies can be defensive or special teams in nature, despite the fact that Lawrence does not play on that side of the ball. Sorry, but they are just the rules.
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