The Saints’ playoff hopes aren’t dead, just hanging by a thread. Here’s a rooting guide.

The Saints’ playoff hopes aren’t dead, just hanging by a thread. Here’s a rooting guide.

The New Orleans Saints’ hopes of ending a two-year postseason drought were severely damaged by their Thursday night prime-time loss to the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.

With a 12% chance of winning the NFC South and a meager 3% chance of earning a wild-card berth, the Saints currently have one of the least likely routes to the postseason among the NFC’s contending teams, according to the playoff simulator provided by the New York Times.

As a team in control of its own postseason fate, New Orleans approached its game against the Rams. The Saints are in desperate need of assistance right now, especially with regard to the wild card.

New Orleans technically does not need to win out in order to make the playoffs, but their chances of making it as a sub-.500 team are so unlikely, this piece will operate under the assumption that the Saints are going to win out to have a realistic shot.

If you want to see the Saints make the playoffs, here’s your rooting guide for the next three weeks.

The NFC South

The Saints won’t lose this Sunday’s divisional game, but one particular result might significantly lessen the likelihood of them winning the NFC South.

This Sunday afternoon, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have dropped their last three games, all eyes should be on the field. In Week 18, the Saints can find themselves in the extremely unfavorable situation of having to rely on the Carolina Panthers if the Buccaneers defeat the Jaguars.

A Buccaneers’ win Sunday would give them a one-game lead against the Saints, but it also would give them an insurmountable tiebreaker advantage — in this scenario, it would come down to the third tiebreaker, which is record against common opponents.

Even if the Saints were to beat Tampa Bay in Week 17, they would need the Panthers to stun the Buccaneers in the final week of the season to move past them in the standings.

But, if Tampa Bay were to lose to Jacksonville this weekend, the Saints would once again be in control of their own destiny as they head into Week 17 — meaning, if the Buccaneers lose Sunday and the Saints win out, the Saints will win the division.

The Falcons can still win the division, but only if they beat the Saints in Week 18.

The wild card

So, let’s say the Buccaneers beat the Jaguars and beat the Panthers, eliminating the Saints from division contention. They can still make the playoffs, but things get really tricky.

Two wild-card vacancies are available (one of the three wild-card places will go to one of the two teams who have already secured postseason berths, the Cowboys and Eagles).

Six teams have a real chance to occupy the final two berths. Among them is the Saints, who have fallen short in their direct confrontations with four of the other five. Whoa.

In order for the Saints to either overtake or avoid being passed by the clubs they are vying with for postseason positioning, the following events must occur. To guarantee a wild-card berth, the Saints must achieve a minimum of three of these results.

Again, this is under the assumption that the Saints win their final two games.

  • Rams: Lose to Arizona, lose to San Francisco.
  • Vikings: Lose two of three to Detroit (twice) and Green Bay.
  • Seahawks: Lose two of three to Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Arizona.
  • Green Bay: Lose one of three to Carolina, Minnesota and Chicago.

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