Cowboys Week 18 rooting guide: Multiple paths to the #2 seed in the NFC

The Cowboys are one win away from taking home the NFC East title and earning the second seed in the 2017 playoffs as a result of recent developments in the NFC.Dallas can accomplish those goals without assistance, but other outcomes in the Week 18 regular-season finales could provide them with some insurance.

After the Eagles’ shocking loss to the Cardinals last weekend and Dallas’ victory against the Lions, the Cowboys now have tiebreakers over both Detroit and Philadelphia. Dallas will be the division champions and the number-two seed behind San Francisco, which has already secured the top slot, provided they defeat the Washington Commanders on Sunday.

If the Cowboys don’t get it done in Washington, a slew of other possibilities emerge. Dallas could still win the division but wind up as the third seed, or drop back into the fifth seed as a wild card. There’s also a wide range of potential first-round opponents; four teams who remain variables in the wild card race and three others from the undecided NFC South.

Here are the NFC playoff standings ahead of Week 16:

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-4 overall, 10-1 vs NFC)
2. Dallas Cowboys (11-5 overall, 8-3 vs NFC)
3. Detroit Lions (11-5 overall, 7-4 vs NFC)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8 overall, 6-5 vs NFC)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5 overall, 7-4 vs NFC)
6. Los Angeles Rams (9-7 overall, 7-4 vs NFC)
7. Green Bay Packers (8-8 overall, 6-5 vs NFC)

• Seattle Seahawks (8-8 overall, 6-5 vs NFC)
• New Orleans Saints (8-8 overall, 5-6 vs NFC)
• Minnesota Vikings (7-9 overall, 6-5 vs NFC)
• Atlanta Falcons (7-9 overall, 4-7 vs NFC)

Based on the conference record tiebreaker, the Cowboys would be the NFC East Champions if both Dallas and Philadelphia win their championship games. If they end tied, their victory over Detroit would move them up to the second slot. The 49ers have already won and have tiebreaker advantages, even if they lose this Sunday and end up tied with Dallas and/or Detroit overall.

The Buccaneers are hanging on to the NFC South right now by the thread of a common games tiebreaker over New Orleans. The Packers are the seventh seed with a strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Seattle and a better conference record than the Saints. Both Tampa and Green Bay have “win and you’re in” scenarios this week. Of the teams below 10 wins, only the Rams have clinched a playoff spot so far.

As we get into the rooting guide, two different thoughts are prevalent. What helps Dallas secure its own playoff positioning, and what creates the best possible opponent for the first round?

Giants over Eagles
Vikings over Lions

Again, the Cowboys don’t need these outcomes to achieve their goals. All they have to do is beat Washington and what happens in these games doesn’t matter. Dallas would be #2, Detroit #3, and Philadelphia #5.

But Dallas may still win the division and even finish as the two-seed if both the Eagles and Lions lose if the Commanders pull off an unlikely upset. Both their conference record tiebreaker against Philadelphia and their matchup against Detroit would remain valid. Of course, we’d rather see the Cowboys succeed based only on their own abilities. If necessary, however, we will gladly accept an alternative way.

The Vikings could potentially qualify for the playoffs as the seventh seed if Minnesota defeats Detroit. I’ll talk more about that soon.

Rams over 49ers

While this would do nothing to change San Francisco’s playoff spot, it would lock up the sixth seed for Los Angeles. That’s not inconsequential to Dallas; it would keep one of the hotter teams in the NFC right now away from the Cowboys until no earlier than the NFC Championship Game.

The Rams’ current surge makes them a dangerous postseason team. As the sixth seed, they could potentially knock out Detroit and then go meet San Francisco again in the Division Round. If they could help keep the 49ers out of the Cowboys’ lives this postseason, that would be greatly appreciated.

Buccaneers over Panthers
Falcons over Saints
Bears over Packers
Cardinals over Seahawks

This combination of outcomes would create a playoff bracket that should suit Dallas well. It would give them a potentially easier opponent in Minnesota, who’s battling significant issues at quarterback, while setting up some tough competition for the rest of the field.

You’d have #4 Tampa Bay, the NFC South winner, hosting the #5 Eagles in the first round. If the Cowboys and Lions win their first-round games, the winner of this one would go on to play the 49ers. You have to like Philly’s chances of upsetting San Francisco better than most teams. And if the Bucs were to beat the Eagles, they feel like the most solid team out of the NFC South. It’s a slim margin, though, between them and the Saints at this point.

It will only matter who finishes sixth and seventh between the Packers and Los Angeles in the wild card round if the Packers defeat the Bears. It’s currently up for grabs who would be the 7th seed and Dallas’ probable first-round opponent, depending on how the 49ers manage their final game against the Rams.

Dallas must, of course, defeat the opposition in the end. However, the annals of NFL history are replete with teams who have won a trophy solely due to their fortunate draw in matchups. It’s perfectly acceptable to wish for the Cowboys to find the best route.

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