Black Monday preview: Are the jobs of these nine NFL coaches safe?
While several coaches are under pressure, it’s unlikely that they will all lose their jobs as Black Monday approaches. The NFL regular season ends on Sunday. Here are nine coaches whose fates are questionable, along with predictions about whether they will be “Safe” or “Gone” (club record in parenthesis).
Atlanta Falcons (7-9): Arthur Smith
This season, has anyone performed worse than Smith with more? Although several NFL insiders have stated that Smith’s job is secure, things could change if the Falcons lose humiliatingly on the road for the second time in a row. This season, they have already lost to the Vikings (on Josh Dobbs’ fifth full day with the team), Titans (in Will Levis’ first career start), and the lowly Cardinals. Smith has the ability to put pressure on Falcons owner Arthur Blank if the team loses to the Saints on Sunday.
Chicago Bears (7-9): Matt Eberflus
The Bears showed life during the second half of the season after an ugly 2-7 start, likely saving the jobs of Eberflus and quarterback Justin Fields. Since Week 10, Chicago’s may have had the league’s best defense, ranking first in defensive expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.167). Eberflus, the former defensive coordinator for the Colts (2018-21), has turned around the unit after it allowed an average of 26.9 points per game from Weeks 1-9. The Bears have surrendered 17.1 points per game during their current 5-2 run.
PREDICTION: Safe
Las Vegas Raiders (7-9 | 4-4 under Pierce): Antonio Pierce
The Raiders interim coach earned the full-time job after leading the team to a 20-14 win at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day. Since Pierce took over in Week 9, Las Vegas has played at an unbelievable level on defense, including ranking first in defensive rush EPA after ranking 30th in the same metric from Weeks 1-8.
PREDICTION: Safe
New England Patriots (4-12): Bill Belichick
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano agree that Sunday’s game against the New York Jets will likely be Belichick’s last as Patriots head coach. That would be an unfortunate way for the Belichick era to end, but the NFL doesn’t run on sentimentality. The Patriots have their most losses since 1992 and Belichick the most in a season during his storied NFL career.
PREDICTION: Gone
New Orleans Saints (8-8): Dennis Allen
A good chance to reclaim the NFC South against the team with the second-easiest schedule in the league this season was lost by New Orleans. The only team with a lower strength of victory than the Saints (.328) is the New York Giants (.300). With one week left in the regular season, they have also recovered from difficult defeats to give themselves a shot at the postseason, so it is unlikely that the risk-averse front staff will make major adjustments.
PREDICTION: Safe
New York Jets (6-10): Robert Saleh
New York’s season ended before it even got off the ground. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles tear after only one pass attempt sunk the team’s playoff hopes and likely saved Saleh from being fired after a third consecutive losing season dropped him to 17-33 as Jets head coach. His .340 winning percentage is the worst in franchise history among coaches given at least 50 games.
PREDICTION: Safe
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8): Todd Bowles
Bowles is a win away from becoming the first coach in Buccaneers franchise history to reach the playoffs in each of his first two seasons in charge. He’s done a fantastic job keeping Tampa Bay in contention despite the team having a huge question at quarterback entering the season with Tom Brady’s retirement and journeyman Baker Mayfield’s arrival.
PREDICTION: Safe
Tennessee Titans (5-11): Mike Vrabel
Back-to-back losing seasons might make this seem like the right time for the Titans to consider an overhaul to their coaching staff, but Vrabel proved his value in his first four (winning) seasons, which included three playoff appearances. “Of course I want to be here. Want to be here as long as we can win,” Vrabel said during a news conference on Wednesday. If the Titans are committed to winning, their best bet is keeping Vrabel.
PREDICTION: Safe
Washington Commanders (4-12): Ron Rivera
Is Rivera’s job (in)security the worst-kept secret there is? Under Rivera’s direction, the Commanders have made one postseason appearance and have not had a winning season. The most damning is the terrible defense of Washington, which has allowed the most points in team history this season—480. The Commanders are worst in both scoring defense and total defense heading into Week 18, which should inspire the executive staff to part ways with defensive-minded Rivera following the regular-season finale.
PREDICTION: Gone
Leave a Reply