Saints fans ask: What are the draft implications for Sunday’s game for New Orleans?
Question: What are the Saints’ draft implications of Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons?
The New Orleans Saints would hold the 13th overall choice in the NFL draft if the season ended today.
However, the season is still ongoing, and there are still a lot of unanswered questions regarding the 2024 draft order with just one week remaining.
If the Saints don’t win against the Falcons, they may choose as high as ninth if things go their way. In order for New Orleans to pick ninth, the following teams would need to win: the Minnesota Vikings against the Detroit Lions, the Las Vegas Raiders against the Denver Broncos, the Chicago Bears against the Green Bay Packers, and the Carolina Panthers against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Saints, Buccaneers, Vikings, Raiders and Bears would all be tied at 8-9, but in this case, New Orleans would hold the highest pick because of its strength of schedule.
Unlike the regular season, when head-to-head is the first tiebreaker for teams with a tied record, the league uses strength of schedule to determine its draft order. The teams with the weaker strength of schedule are rewarded a better selection because they couldn’t beat an easier slate of opponents.
According to Tankathon, the Saints’ strength of schedule is .430 — which helps them considerably when it comes to tiebreakers. That percentage, though, will likely change by the end of the season, depending on how the remaining games shake out.
New Orleans hasn’t held a top 10 pick since 2008, when the Saints drafted defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis with the seventh overall selection.
Still, the odds don’t favor the Saints. Beyond the fact they’re favored to beat the Falcons, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives New Orleans only a 6.2% shot at landing a top 10 pick — and less than a 1% chance at drafting ninth. The team’s average draft position, according to those projections, is 15.1.
According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, the Saints have a 15% chance to end up with the 15th overall selection — which makes it the highest percentage tied to a specific pick for New Orleans. But if you’re looking for optimism, the Saints have a 55% shot to land a pick better than No. 15. The odds, for what it’s worth, do not account for teams who decide to rest their starters.
The most likely scenario is the worst for the Saints: They beat the Falcons and still don’t get the help they need to make the playoffs — leading to a middle-of-the-road pick.
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