Baker Mayfield Found Fourth Quarter Answers| A Next Gen Look at Saints-Bucs

In Week 17, the Tampa Bay Bucs were defeated 23–13 by the New Orleans Saints and struggled to mount a meaningful offense

during the first three quarters. The Buccaneers did, however, mount two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, and they

could have tied the game late if rookie wide receiver Trey Palmer hadn’t slipped to the ground and dropped the ball after a 54-yard reception.

Baker Mayfield finished with his third 300-yard passing game as a Buccaneer, with 220 of his 309 yards coming in the fourth

quarter. Playing against a Saints defense that wanted to protect a big lead by draining the clock and discouraging big plays,

Mayfield still managed to hit several downfield shots in crunch time, including touchdowns of 22 yards to Palmer and 47 to Chris Godwin.

Having started 64 games as the starting quarterback for the Bucs, Mayfield’s fourth quarter versus the Saints was his most

productive in terms of yards. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he attempted 16 passes in that quarter—his most in any other

period—and completed 12 of them for a completion rate over expected (CPOE) of 6.8%. Week 17’s fourth quarter saw Mayfield’s

passer rating of 130.2, which is 13th best this season. In the last three games, he has had five of his 13 greatest passer rating quarters.

Mayfield’s total expected points added (EPA) in the fourth quarter against New Orleans was 5.9, his 11th most prolific quarter

this season in that category. Of his 16 dropbacks in that period, nine of them resulted in a higher post-snap EPA than was

expected, or what Next Gen Stats calls +EPA. That’s tied for the fourth most +EPA he has had in any quarter this season.

Coincidentally, his best quarter of the season in this regard, with 11 +EPA in 17 dropbacks was the second period in a Week

Four win over the Saints in New Orleans.

On Sunday, Mayfield had his fifth-highest average of the season in the fourth quarter, averaging an astounding 13.8 yards per

throw attempt. It’s the greatest YPA he’s had in any quarter with ten or more passes completed.

Neither the Buccaneers’ comeback effort nor their overall offensive performance was especially successful on Sunday.

But when the chips were down, Mayfield and company did find some solutions and showed what the Bucs offense can do when

it settles into a rhythm.