What if the Falcons win/lose against the Chicago Bears

In their final home game of the regular season last weekend, the Atlanta Falcons defeated the very good Indianapolis Colts squad with a loud and comprehensive victory that kept their postseason chances alive. Unless the Falcons are able to pull off a late-season comeback to win the NFC South, that was the last time they will play in Mercedes-Benz Stadium until September of next year.

The calculus at this point is pretty simple for Atlanta — you have to win each of the last two games, taking care of your own business, and hope to get some help along the way. No longer is your fate in your own hands, as this team sacrificed that privilege in the stormy terrain of Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, two weeks ago.

Their next opponent, the Chicago Bears, are currently playing their best football of the season. They’ve won three of their last four games and are still alive for a postseason berth of their own, albeit with the odds stacked completely against them. This will be their last home game of the season.

Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Bears in Week 17, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.

If the Falcons win

They will keep their hopes for an NFC South title alive, provided that the New Orleans Saints beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend. If the Bucs win, they will clinch the division. A Saints victory would give the Falcons a chance to win the South in Week 18, with a victory in New Orleans for the Falcons combined with a Bucs defeat against Carolina.

Atlanta’s best chance, if the division is eliminated, will be the Wildcard race. Unfortunately for them, they are now trailing the 6-seed Rams and 7-seed Seahawks by a game in that race as well, but they lost the tiebreaker to both teams because of their worse conference records. Even a Seahawks loss to the Cardinals the next week, together with Atlanta’s victory, would not be sufficient for both teams to have the same overall and conference record because Seattle has a better record versus opponents they play frequently.

As a result, if both the Seahawks and Rams win this weekend, the Falcons will be eliminated from Wildcard contention. Combine that with a Buccaneers victory, and Atlanta could feasibly beat the Bears and still be eliminated from playoff contention entirely.

Looking at the draft order, the Falcons currently occupy the 10th spot, same as last week. They stand to drop in the order down to the 14th spot if the Saints, Raiders and Broncos all suffer defeats this weekend, and at best will fall to 11th since the Packers and Vikings (who have identical 7-8 records as Atlanta) go head-to-head as well.

If the Falcons lose

This will be a very simple mathematical calculation — they will be eliminated from playoff contention no matter what else happens across the league. Every other scoreline could go exactly the way they need it to and it would not matter because they could not take care of their own business.

This will officially be their sixth consecutive year missing the post season, which would be their longest drought since they missed out on the playoffs eight consecutive years between 1983-1990. Their current run is already the third-longest drought in franchise history.

The debate over whether Arthur Blank should keep head coach Arthur Smith on for a fourth season appears to be raging. It’s highly likely that the answer to that will be yes if the Falcons prevail. It would be far harder to defend retention if we lost this weekend and possibly in Week 18 at New Orleans.

Although the Falcons can’t currently move up much from their current draft position, they could at the very least pass this Bears club by moving up to the ninth spot.

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