SR’s Pick-6 Preview: Bucs vs. Saints
Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report provides a six-point rundown of the Bucs game that is coming up. What is at stake for both the Bucs and their opponent, what games to monitor each week that are crucial to Tampa Bay’s success or failure.
After a convincing 30-12 victory over the struggling Jaguars, the Bucs advanced to 8-7 and kept their lead in the NFC South. After losing 30-22 away to Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football, the New Orleans Saints dropped to 7-8 and are currently one game behind Tampa Bay. As of Week 17, both teams are still in the running for the division title and a Wild Card playoff position.
It’s simple for the surging Bucs, who have won four games in a row. A win over the Saints means a third straight NFC South title for Tampa Bay. And it would also mean that Tampa Bay has swept New Orleans for a second straight year under head coach Todd Bowles, who is coaching for his life as an NFL head coach after an 8-9 record and a first-round playoff exit in 2022.
What’s At Stake For The Bucs
It would be one win better than last season if the Bucs could win nine games this year. But perhaps more importantly, winning five straight since the team’s 4-7 status shortly after the midseason would give Tampa Bay some much-needed momentum going into a Week 18 match at Carolina and a home playoff game. If the Bucs reach 10 wins and/or a playoff victory at home, Bowles and offensive coordinator Dave Canales would almost certainly return the following season.
Should the team win five out of its last six games or finish the 2023 regular season on a six-game winning streak, the Bucs would be a team that no one would want to play in Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. But first things first – the Bucs need to beat the Saints in order for that scenario to come to fruition.
What’s At Stake For The Saints
With a 7-8 record, New Orleans has struggled to really build any momentum this this year. The Saints haven’t won more than two games in a row at any point this season and have had three stretches where the team has suffered back-to-back losses, including a three-game losing streak in November.
New Orleans hasn’t been above .500 since beating New England on October 8 to improve to 3-2 on the season. After back-to-back wins at home against Carolina and the New York Giants got the team back to .500 with a 7-7 record, the Saints got crushed on Thursday Night Football, 30-22, by the Rams out in Los Angeles
Like Todd Bowles in Tampa, Saints head coach Dennis Allen is under fire to produce a winning season in New Orleans. Allen, the Saints’ defensive coordinator, was promoted to replace Sean Payton, who retired in 2022. Allen went 7-10 in his first season as head coach and is currently mired in a 7-8 record. A loss on Sunday at Tampa Bay would assure the Saints of another losing season, and that could prompt his firing at the end of the year unless New Orleans wins at Raymond James Stadium.
The Bucs Win If…
Tampa Bay has won four straight games because of improved play by the offense. The Bucs have averaged 114 yards per game on the ground over the last six weeks and have scored no fewer than 20 points per game as a result. The reason why the offense is putting more points on the scoreboard is because with a balanced attack, the Bucs offense is less predictable and teams can’t sit back in a Cover 2 shell and just focus on double-teaming Mike Evans in the passing game.
As the Bucs have scored more points, and the team has averaged 26 points per game over the last six weeks, it has allowed Todd Bowles’ defense to play with a lead lately. Bowles has called his defensive plays more aggressively as a result. And the added benefit of an improved ground game has been keeping Tampa Bay’s defense off the field and well rested for the fourth quarter.
So the Bucs need to keep it up. Run the ball, use play action, get an early lead and let the defense play aggressively. This approach has led to sacks and takeaways on defense as the wins have piled up. We first saw this style of complementary football play out in New Orleans in a 26-9 win in Week 4. That’s been the same recipe for success lately in the month of December in Tampa Bay, too.
The Saints Win If…
Quarterback Derek Carr has played well lately, even in New Orleans’ recent loss at Los Angeles where he threw three touchdowns and one interception. But Carr has to play flawlessly on Sunday to beat a hot Bucs team in Tampa Bay, where the team has won two straight games and is building momentum. Carr needs some help from someone other than star wide receiver Chris Olave.
At times, that help has come from receiver Rashid Shaheed and from a tight end room that includes Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau, as well as running back Alvin Kamara. But it hasn’t been consistent enough for the Saints offense to put up enough points to make up for a shaky defense. New Orleans has the ninth-best scoring defense, allowing just 19.8 points per game, but has given up 27, 24, 33 and 30 points in last four losses.
In order for the Saints to beat the Bucs and have a chance at winning the NFC South, New Orleans must create turnovers on defense and pressure Baker Mayfield. Winning the turnover battle always has extra significance when these two teams get together. So the Saints winning this important stat is paramount if New Orleans is going to have a chance of ending its three-game losing streak to Tampa Bay.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense
Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs vs. Saints DE Carl Granderson
Cameron Jordan is no longer the top pass rushing threat in New Orleans. At age 34, the aging Jordan has just two sacks after posting 8.5 last season and 12.5 sacks the year before that. Granderson, the Saints’ other defensive end, has emerged as a real pass rushing force with a team-leading and career-high 8.5 sacks this year. After being a rotational pass rusher for years behind the likes of Trey Hendrickson and Marcus Davenport, their departures have paved the way for Granderson to start and he’s making the most of that opportunity.
At 6-foot-5, 261 pounds, Granderson has long arms and an intriguing blend of power and quickness. Combined with a high motor, Granderson has caused fits for left tackles in recent weeks, compiling a sack in each of the last three games. With Wirfs battling various injuries this year, especially over the second half of the season, this is a battle worth watching as a blindside hit against Baker Mayfield could change the outcome of Sunday’s game.
After a hot start to his first season playing left tackle, Wirfs has cooled off considerably down the stretch. Thirteen out of the 24 pressures Wirfs has allowed this season have come over the past six games, including all five of the sacks he’s surrendered. Wirfs will have to play every snap like it’s his last to match Granderson’s motor on Sunday.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense
Bucs Cornerbacks vs. Saints WR Chris Olave
New Orleans will be without Michael Thomas again, so Olave will have to carry the Saints’ downfield passing attack. In his three games against Tampa Bay – all losses – he’s really struggled, and that’s been a key to the Bucs’ victories over their division rival. In Olave’s first career game against the Bucs in 2022, he was targeted 13 times but only wound up with five catches for 80 yards. New Orleans’ first-round pick also fumbled in the fourth quarter of that 20-10 Saints loss.
It hasn’t gotten any better for Olave since then. He was held to just four catches for 65 yards in Tampa Bay’s 17-16 come-from-behind win at Raymond James Stadium last year. Olave was also targeted six times in this year’s 26-9 Bucs victory in New Orleans, but finished with just one catch for four yards. In three games against Tampa Bay, Olave has been targeted 25 times but only has 10 catches for 149 yards with zero touchdowns.
The Bucs cornerbacks need to make sure Olave doesn’t establish a rhythm with quarterback Derek Carr, whether it’s Christian Izien providing coverage in the slot or Jamel Dean or Zyon McCollum covering him outside (Carlton Davis III may miss games due to a concussion). This season, Olave has 81 receptions for 1,041 yards and four touchdowns. In part, Olave’s inundation of coverage contributed to the Bucs’ comfortable victory in Week 4. The Bucs might easily win again if Tampa Bay can accomplish that feat.
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