John Romano: If they could do it over again, would Saints pick Carr or Mayfield?
Greetings and welcome to Know Your Quarterback for today. In anticipation of the NFC South matchup between Tampa Bay and New Orleans this coming week, we’ll concentrate on Saints quarterback Derek Carr.
In the NFL, how many postseason games has Carr won? (None.) How much cash did Carr receive from the Saints? (A $150 million, four-year agreement with a $100 million guarantee.) How dissatisfied with Carr are New Orleans supporters today? (Excellent. Moreover, extreme, complete, and entire are allowed.) It’s funny how 2023 has shaped up for NFL free agency. Perhaps not so humorous, though, if you’re having a beignet to start the day.
Back in March, Carr and Baker Mayfield had similar winning percentages in their careers (.443 for Carr, .449 for Mayfield), similar yards per attempt (7.1 to 7.2), similar touchdown percentages (4.4 to 4.5) and passer ratings in the same neighborhood (91.8 to 86.5). Carr was soon to turn 32 and Mayfield was closing in on 28. And yet Carr’s guaranteed money was 25 times larger than what Mayfield got from the Bucs.
Anyone in New Orleans interested in a do-over? If this sounds like a slam of Carr, that’s not my intent. It’s more about how perceptions can sometimes warp reality when assessing players. It’s probably fair to say that, with 14 combined NFL seasons
and a 1-2 playoff record between them, Carr and Mayfield were carrying some disappointment around in their gym bags. And yet, despite having similar numbers, their reputations were wildly different nine months ago.
Carr was considered a victim of the dysfunction within the Raiders organization while Mayfield was assigned a hefty share of the blame for problems in Cleveland and Carolina.
Maybe there was some truth in those perceptions, but not to the extreme of $100 million guaranteed versus $4 million guaranteed. And, in some ways, perceptions are still driving the story. Carr has a 7-8 record with 93.6 passer rating in New Orleans but is being treated like a colossal disappointment because of the size of his contract and the weight of expectations.
Mayfield has an 8-7 record with a 96.2 passer rating but is hearing praise from every corner of the league because he looked washed up just a short time ago.
Take away kick returns and defensive touchdowns, and the two offenses are producing at a similar rate. The Bucs have 34 touchdowns and 26 field goals. The Saints have 33 touchdowns and 25 field goals. But, again, it’s the perception that is driving the narrative.
Carr gets called a pretender because of problems in the red zone while Mayfield is hearing sonnets for a hard-nosed approach. “It starts with No. 6 over there,” Bucs tackle Tristan Wirfs said of Mayfield’s influence on the team’s turnaround. “He’s a little guy, but he’s fiery.” Timing and momentum also play roles in this tale.
The Bucs appeared to need a trail of breadcrumbs to reach the end zone by the middle of the season, and Mayfield’s completion % seemed oddly low given the style of throwing the current passing game.
Nevertheless, the Bucs were allowed a bit more freedom to figure things out because they had a rookie offensive coordinator and a running game that was renowned for its incompetence. With the Bucs averaging 28.5 points per game and Mayfield leading the way with nine touchdown passes and just one interception, the team is currently riding a four-game winning run.
“I really think the story is the group doing right together,” offensive coordinator Dave Canales said. “The receivers being where they’re supposed to be, the tight ends in their blocking or … route assignments. All of it coming together. With the variety of the different things we can do, there is a lot of learning, a lot of detail that goes in.” That’s a polite way of saying that quarterbacks often get too much credit. Or too much blame.
That’s undoubtedly true, but a quarterback can still have an outsized importance on a game. And his public demeanor and private relationships with teammates matter. Mayfield seems to have learned that lesson after his flameouts in Cleveland and Carolina. There is a joy and a humility to the way he’s approached his time in Tampa Bay, and players on both sides of the ball have talked admiringly about his attitude.
Conversely, Carr has occasionally come across as defensive, which makes sense given that it seems like everyone is pointing the finger at him for every letdown on the scoreboard. Did Carr get overpaid by the Saints? Perhaps? Most likely? The inquiry could be premature because he has another $30 million guaranteed for the upcoming season. And with Mayfield, did the Bucs get a deal? Without a doubt. Perhaps even the NFL’s greatest deal in 2023. Of course, that’s all perception at this point. Sunday will provide additional information if the Bucs win the NFC South.
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