The Saints’ Playoff Hopes aren’t Dead, Just Hanging by a Thread. Here’s a Rooting Guide

The New Orleans Saints’ hopes of ending a two-year postseason drought were severely damaged by their Thursday night prime-time loss to the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.

The Saints currently have one of the least likely routes to the postseason among the NFC’s contending teams, with a 12% chance of winning the NFC South and a meager 3% chance of earning a Wild Card berth, according to the playoff simulator run by the New York Times.

As a team in control of its own postseason fate, New Orleans approached its game against the Rams. The Saints are in desperate need of assistance right now, especially with regard to the wild card.

New Orleans technically does not need to win out in order to make the playoffs, but their chances of making it as a sub-.500 team are so unlikely, this piece will operate under the assumption that the Saints are going to win out to have a realistic shot.

If you want to see the Saints make the playoffs, here’s your rooting guide for the next three weeks.

The NFC South

The Saints won’t lose this Sunday’s divisional game, but one particular result might significantly lessen the likelihood of them winning the NFC South.

This Sunday afternoon, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have dropped their last three games, all eyes should be on the field. In Week 18, the Saints can find themselves in the extremely unfavorable situation of having to rely on the Carolina Panthers if the Buccaneers defeat the Jaguars.

In this situation, it would come down to the third tie-breaker, record versus common opponents.

A Buccaneers victory on Sunday would give them a one-game lead against the Saints, but it would also give them an unbeatable tie-breaker advantage.

The Panthers would need to surprise the Bucs in the last week of the season for the Saints to pass them in the standings, even if they were to defeat Tampa Bay in Week 17.

However, if Tampa Bay falls to Jacksonville this weekend, the Saints will once again be in charge of their own fate going into Week 17; if the Saints triumph and the Buccaneers lose on Sunday, the Saints will win the division.

Only if the Falcons defeat the Saints in Week 18 will they have a chance to win the division.

The Wild Card

So, let’s say the Buccaneers beat the Jaguars and beat the Panthers, eliminating the Saints from division contention. They can still make the playoffs, but things get really tricky.

Two wild card places are available (one of the three wild card spots will belong to the Cowboys and Eagles, who have already guaranteed postseason participation).

Six teams have a real chance to occupy the final two berths. Among them is the Saints, who have fallen short in their direct confrontations with four of the other five. Whoa.

In order for the Saints to either overtake or avoid being passed by the clubs they are vying with for postseason positioning, the following events must occur. To guarantee a wild card position, the Saints must achieve at least three of these results.

Again, this is under the assumption that the Saints will win their final two games.

• Rams: Lose to Arizona, lose to San Francisco.
• Vikings: Lose two of three to Detroit (twice) and Green Bay.
• Seahawks: Lose two of three to Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Arizona.
• Green Bay: Lose one of three to Carolina, Minnesota and Chicago.

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