How confident are you in the Cowboys against Green Bay’s defense?

Mike Pettine, McCarthy’s defensive coordinator, was kept on by the young coach when McCarthy was dismissed and replaced in Green Bay by Matt LaFleur. The Packers then proceeded to win 13 games in the following two seasons, making it to the conference finals both times. That’s why LaFleur’s decision to let go of Pettine was at least somewhat unexpected.             

Joe Barry, a legendary instructor with a ton of experience, took his place. Barry was raised by a coach; his father was a collegiate offensive line coach for many years. The younger Barry would eventually wed Rod Marinelli’s daughter, providing him with one final link to the NFL coaching levels.

Barry found work again, though, and had several stints here and there. Eventually, he became the defensive coordinator in Washington under head coach Jay Gruden. That brought him into contact with Sean McVay, the offensive coordinator at the time. Two years later, when McVay landed the Rams job and Barry found himself on the outs with Gruden, he took an assistant head coaching role in Los Angeles to help McVay succeed as the youngest head coach in NFL history.

When the 2021 offseason rolled along, LaFleur was in need of a defensive coordinator. Barry’s consideration was certainly influenced by his relationship with McVay, and soon the coach was off to Green Bay for his third coordinator position.

It helps to know Barry’s background in order to comprehend the workings of his defense. His coaching career was developed under the Tampa 2 scheme, which includes two deep safety and a ton of zone coverage—as Cowboys fans are all too familiar with. In contrast to Marinelli, though, Barry has frequently favored to play from a more conventional 3-4 alignment, with two outside linebackers who are equally capable of dropping into coverage or rushing the quarterback. Because of this, he fit right in.

The hope was that Barry, despite his unspectacular performances in Detroit and Washington, would replicate the success of Phillips and Staley. To put things politely, though, that hasn’t happened. Barry’s first year saw the Packers drop from 10th in defensive DVOA to 12th; they fell to 25th the next year, and finished this year ranked 27th.

Barry’s shortcomings, in contrast to his prior stops, cannot be attributed to a lack of skill. Jaire Alexander is regarded as one of the greatest cornerbacks in the game, and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and defensive lineman Kenny Clark have both been selected for the Pro Bowl or All-Pro team. Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, who are both gifted edge rushers, are another asset. And yet, three years into Barry’s tenure, they rank among the worst football defenses. They rank 26th in run defense and pass defense DVOA, respectively, indicating that this defense is incompetent in all areas.

Furthermore, this defense excels at hindering Dallas’s strongest offensive plays. The Packers defense this season ranked dead last in terms of EPA and dropback allowed.

The Packers have an extremely zone-heavy offensive scheme, yet for whatever reason, they have a terrible pass defense in the midst of their zones. That doesn’t look good for their game against Ferguson, Prescott, Lamb, and the other Cowboys. Their best chance is probably to hope that their pass rush, which has the sixth-highest pressure rate, will be sufficient. Even then, Prescott has been among the greatest quarterbacks against the blitz throughout his career, and the Packers’ high pressure rate also corresponds with their 10th-highest blitz rate.

Whatever your analysis, this defense presents a highly favorable matchup for the Cowboys offense, and that may still be underestimating it. The Cowboys.

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