Cowboys scouting report: Breaking down the Packers defensive scheme.
When Mike McCarthy was fired in Green Bay and replaced by Matt LaFleur, the young coach opted to retain McCarthy’s defensive coordinator, Mike Pettine. The Packers then went on to win 13 games each of the next two years, reaching the conference championship game both times. That made it at least a little bit surprising when LaFleur opted to move on from Pettine.
Joe Barry, a legendary instructor with a ton of experience, took his place. Barry was raised by a coach; his father was a collegiate offensive line coach for many years. The younger Barry would eventually wed Rod Marinelli’s daughter, providing him with one final link to the NFL coaching levels.
Barry taught linebackers alongside Marinelli’s defensive line for six seasons with the Buccaneers, so the connections came in handy. Barry became Marinelli’s defensive coordinator once he was hired as the Lions’ head coach. Naturally, things didn’t go as planned because both were a part of the historically terrible 2008 Lions squad, who finished 0-16.
Barry found work again, though, and had several stints here and there. Eventually, he became the defensive coordinator in Washington under head coach Jay Gruden. That brought him into contact with Sean McVay, the offensive coordinator at the time. Two years later, when McVay landed the Rams job and Barry found himself on the outs with Gruden, he took an assistant head coaching role in Los Angeles to help McVay succeed as the youngest head coach in NFL history.
Flash forward to the 2021 offseason, and LaFleur needed a defensive coordinator. His relationship with McVay undoubtedly played a part in considering Barry, and before long the coach was on his way to Green Bay for his third gig as a coordinator.
Knowing where Barry comes from is helpful to understanding how his defense operates. His coaching career was forged in the fires of the Tampa 2, a scheme that features (as Cowboys fans know all too well) plenty of zone coverage with two deep safeties. Unlike Marinelli, though, Barry has often preferred to operate out of a more traditional 3-4 look, with two outside linebackers that present an equal threat of rushing the passer or dropping into coverage. That made him a natural fit under Wade Phillips with the Rams and, later, Brandon Staley.
The hope was that Barry, despite his unspectacular performances in Detroit and Washington, would replicate the success of Phillips and Staley. To put things politely, though, that hasn’t happened. Barry’s first year saw the Packers drop from 10th in defensive DVOA to 12th; they fell to 25th the next year, and finished this year ranked 27th.
Barry’s shortcomings, in contrast to his prior stops, cannot be attributed to a lack of skill. Jaire Alexander is regarded as one of the greatest cornerbacks in the game, and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and defensive lineman Kenny Clark have both been selected for the Pro Bowl or All-Pro team. Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, who are both gifted edge rushers, are another asset. And yet, three years into Barry’s reign, they rank among the worst football defences. They rank 26th in run defence and pass defence DVOA, respectively, indicating that this defence is incompetent in all areas.
Not only that, but this defense is uniquely bad at stopping the things Dallas does best on offense. This year’s Packers defense finished dead last in EPA/dropback allowed and QBR allowed on throws to the middle of the field, which is an area where Dak Prescott has thrived this year, particularly on throws to CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Lamb, in particular, has been one of the most lethal receivers in the league this year on slant routes, and the Packers just so happen to rank dead last in defending slant routes both by EPA/play and passer rating.
The Packers have an extremely zone-heavy offensive design, yet for whatever reason, they have a terrible pass defence in the midst of their zones. That doesn’t look good for their game against Ferguson, Prescott, Lamb, and the other Cowboys.
Their best chance is probably to hope that their pass rush, which has the sixth-highest pressure rate, will be sufficient. Even then, Prescott has been among the greatest quarterbacks against the blitz throughout his career, and the Packers’ high pressure rate also corresponds with their 10th-highest blitz rate.
Whatever your analysis, this defence presents an extremely favourable matchup for the Cowboys offence, and that may still be underestimating it. Despite the Packers’ explosive end to the regular season, the Cowboys are favoured by a score in large part because their best players should have strong days on offence.
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