Farewell to Michael Brantley…and who is the Astros’ replacement?

Michael Brantley declared his retirement late last week. At 37, he could have still played, but he made the decision that it was time to spend more time with his family. Brantley was one of the Astros’ most well-liked and respected players throughout the five years he spent with the team. Fans and teammates praised his contributions to the game. We can now reflect on his Astros career while also speculating about potential successors.

Brantley can be given a lot of labels. A “professional’s professional.” The left-handed batter who is a professional. Mr. Chill. Dr. Smooth, remain composed and cool. He was skilled at every aspect of hitting, including drawing walks and avoiding strikeouts, hitting critical home runs, and plate discipline.

I’ll get to the stats shortly. But first let’s salute the intangibles he brought to the team. In early 2022, Fangraphs asked a number of veteran players who they viewed as “most underrated” player in baseball. Two former Astros said Michael Brantley. Catcher Jason Castro said:

Replacing Brantley’s Left-Handed Bat

Michael Brantley divided his attention between DH and LF. During his final season, he saw more use as a platoon bat, coming into the game against opposing pitchers who were formidable right-handers. Yordan Alvarez and Chas McCormick look to be splitting time in left field, at least in the beginning. Alvarez will move to the DH position in the lineup when McCormick is playing in left field. McCormick outhits righties when facing left-handed pitchers. Alvarez and Brantley could man LF and DH when Brantley was available, adding further firepower against strong RHPs.

The only left-handed hitters for the Astros are Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. The Astros have the fewest available LHBs out of all MLB teams. As a result, the lineup is a little less balanced.

Therefore, replacing Brantley’s role means finding a platoon LHB who can be inserted into the same DH/LF role. We will start with internal options and then move to free agent options.

The Astros have a number of LH outfielders in the minor leagues. However, none of them appear to be immediately ready for promotion to the major leagues. But it is conceivable that one of them could make a splash early in the regular season which might lead to a ML promotion sometime during the regular season.

The listing below shows the top of the LH OF minor league options. For each player, the AAA BB/K rate is calculated as an indicator of plate discipline. The 2023 AA/AAA wRC+ is shown as well. Finally, the comparable 2024 major league projection (ZIPS) for those two metrics is listed for each of the players. As a comparison benchmark, the table shows Michael Brantley’s ML BB/K and OPS+ in 2022-23.

K/BB wRC+ BB/K (projected) OPS+ (projected)

Loperfido 0.36 123 0.27 87

Dirden 0.34 68 0.29 85

Hamilton 0.76 84 0.36 84

Barber (AA) 0.62 111 0.32 82

Melton (AA) 0.25 117 0.26 74

Comparison: Brantley K/BB 1.03 wRC+ 127

Not surprisingly, minor league players have much worse BB/K rates than Brantley, providing a rough sketch of the likely weak plate discipline. Based on the OPS+ projections, ZIPS appears to rate the minor league players as “not ready for prime time.” Loperfido and Dirden carry the best projected OPS+ at 87 and 85 respectively, which is quite a drop from Brantley’s wRC+ of 127.

There’s been no indication that the Astros plan to sign a left-handed outfielder who is available as a free agency. The Astros would prioritize cost if they choose to sign free agents to fill outfield positions.

I penned a piece about unconventional free agent choices in November. Since then, there haven’t been many signings, thus the findings remain mostly unchanged. Cody Bellinger, the best available free agency left-handed outfielder, is probably beyond the Astros’ budget. This is the Fangraphs free agent tracker for outfielders that are still unsigned.

Joc Pederson (111 wRC+ and 15 HR) or Eddie Rosario (100 wRC+ and 21 HRs) are likely the Astros’ best fit, as I mentioned in my earlier piece on free agency left fielders. A recent Fangraphs.

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