Saints playoff picture: New Orleans’ updated NFC South, wild-card chances to make 2023 NFL playoffs

In the past two weeks, the Saints have handled business. For New Orleans, the trials now start.

The Saints ended a run of three straight losses by defeating the Panthers and Giants by a combined score of 52–12. The victories were crucial for New Orleans to remain in the running for the NFC South title and the NFC wild-card spot.

The real pressure starts to build in Week 16. Before playing two straight NFC South games against other contenders, the Buccaneers and Falcons, the Saints will take on the Rams, another 7-7 NFC team, on “Thursday Night Football” in the wild-card chase.

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The game has plenty of playoff implications for both teams, particularly for the Saints who still still have a chance to win the division.

How does New Orleans look in the playoff race heading into Thursday’s game? Here’s what you need to know.

Saints playoff picture

The Saints come into the game on Thursday outside of the playoff field. Based on tiebreakers, the Saints are down at ninth, trailing fourth other 7-7 teams, including the Buccaneers, who currently hold the NFC South lead.

The Saints still have plenty of time to help themselves out. As things stand, New Orleans’ 4-5 conference record is keeping it behind the Vikings, Rams and Seahawks. But the Saints end the year with three straight NFC games, giving them a chance to fix that.

In the NFC South, the Saints lost the first meeting against the Buccaneers, which is the difference between the lead and second place in the division. They’ll face Tampa Bay in Week 17 to get even. They would still need some help in the divisional record tiebreaker, however, since Tampa Bay is currently 3-1 in the division while the Saints are only 2-2.

Saints remaining schedule

The Saints will not have any gimme games left on the schedule. After facing the Rams, the Saints will play the Buccaneers on the road then host the Falcons.

According to Sporting News’ model, the Saints are slight underdogs against the Bucs and Rams but own a comfortable lead over a struggling Atlanta squad.

The matchup with Tampa Bay will be very important. If you succeed in that, winning the division appears much more likely. If it were lost, though, the divisional competition would virtually stop and the wild-card race would become more difficult.

Saints playoff chances

Per Sporting News’ projection model, the Saints have a 52.8 percent chance to make the playoffs before facing the Saints.

Here’s a look at the wild-card race, not including the Cowboys or Eagles, who have both clinched a playoff spot, or the division-leading Lions and NFC West champion 49ers.

Although the model believes that winning the NFC South is New Orleans’ most likely route, that still provides the team the third-best probability of making it to the playoffs. Nevertheless, the Saints would surpass or tie every other wild-card candidate with a projected record of 9-8.

The odds would undoubtedly suffer for New Orleans if Los Angeles defeated the Saints on Thursday, especially since it would be against a different NFC wild-card opponent. Compared to New Orleans, Seattle and Green Bay have easier schedules remaining, and the Vikings have a solid 6-3 conference record that could be useful in tiebreaker situations.

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