Ronel Blanco, Pitch Control, And Caution About Spring Training Stats.
As we prepare for camp next month, here’s a nice tidbit about Spring Training. Since camp in 2020, Ronel Blanco has only allowed one earned run, a solo home run in 2023, in 22 1⁄3 innings (235 pitches). Blanco looked impressive in camp last year, striking out 17 and walking only three in 14 innings. A 0.64 ERA, regardless of the situation, stands out and captures attention. His performance was easy to remember, especially since ineffectiveness and injury had depleted the Astros’ pitching depth by early June.
Of course, Spring Training stats are held to be relatively worthless…well, depending on the context. Traditional stats such as ERA and batting average, with their inherent flaws readily apparent in the regular season, present no importance in Cactus and Grapefruit League games.
Even the more reliable metrics hold less weight than usual. A strikeout rate, for example, begins to become increasingly stable around 70 batters a pitcher faces.
A batter’s strikeout rate is determined by 60 plate appearances, or around 15 games. Don’t bother with on-base percentages or more advanced figures like BABIP and FIP because there isn’t enough sample size to rely on them. Because of sample size constraints and the changing levels of competitiveness at Spring Training, these often used measures should be taken with a grain of salt, if not ignored entirely.
While his performance in 2023 was erratic in both the majors and minors, and his peripherals did not paint a promising image, Blanco did his lot to help buoy a rotation in desperate need of innings last summer, at least for a while.
His outstanding performance at camp undoubtedly aided his argument, even if the statistics aren’t entirely credible. Blanco, who is now 30, will have another chance to contribute to the parent club in 2024, although as depth as an occasional starter and lengthy reliever.
For Spring Training, I’m interested in seeing how his pitches flow throughout camp, which is more valuable than traditional metrics. Blanco’s slider last season piqued my interest. It was his most valued pitch in terms of run value, with a plus-seven run differential equal to Ryan Pressly’s.
However, the Stuff+ pitch model did not have a positive impression of Blanco’s slider, scoring it at only 93 last season (with 100 signifying average on the scale). The opposite occurred with his four-seam fastball, which had a negative-13 run value compared to a 104 on Stuff+. No other pitch on Houston’s staff had a worse run value last season.
The main issue with Blanco’s fastball is where he locates the pitch, as seen by a Location+ grade of only 92. This is consistent with the heatmap of Blanco’s previous four-seam throws.
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