In February, Blackburn Rovers had to appoint a new head coach for the second year running. Valérien Ismaël’s appointment, announced on Wednesday, appears to be very different from those under which John Eustace arrived last year. However, common themes emerge: another manager has left amid concerns about behind-the-scenes stability and a lack of investment in the playing squad, and another coach with a mixed track record arrives to take the reins.
A few years ago, Ismaël was second-tier management’s hot prospect. He led a Barnsley side with limited resources to the Championship play-offs in 2021 and was quickly snapped up by West Bromwich Albion, where he started off like a steam train – but now, after three firings in his last three jobs, none of which lasted a full season, he arrives at Ewood Park with a reputation to rebuild and, more importantly for the fans, a top-six spot to secure. If he fails again, he might not get a call the next time someone needs a new manager.
Ismaël arrives at Ewood with a career of extremes.
Ismaël is a manager known for his dramatic successes and failures. His early attempts into management in Germany, where he spent much of his playing career, were not particularly successful, with both Wolfsburg and Nürnberg firing him within six months. There was little indication of a top-tier coach in the works.
But then came his second chance in Austria, where he led an unfancied LASK side to the Europa League’s final 32, qualifying from a group that contained Sporting and PSV Eindhoven before falling to Manchester United. Under Ismaël’s leadership, a club that had never competed in Europe’s top competitions became a domestic and European contender.
Another left turn led him to Barnsley, whom he led to the play-offs against all odds before losing to Swansea City in the semi-finals. Then he joined West Brom, where he went undefeated in his first two months. Then the wheels fell off.
Ismaël left West Brom in January 2022 after only winning one out of eight games. Things were more worse at Beşiktaş in Turkey, when the Frenchman won only eight of the 19 games he was assigned, an appalling record for one of the Süper Lig’s traditional powerhouses. More recently, he was at Watford for ten months until being let go after winning 12 of 41 matches.
Ismaël’s career has two poles that are far apart. He has been a roaring success, a complete disaster, and rarely anything in between; he has never been with one club long enough to develop a narrative about what he can accomplish over the course of several seasons. Appointing Ismaël is a major bet.
It’s also a gamble, and it comes at a key moment for Blackburn. Since their demotion to the second division in 2012, this has been their greatest season, and they have every opportunity of making the play-offs for the first time – they are sixth with 12 games remaining in what promises to be another extremely close-fought battle for promotion. In short, there isn’t much room for error. The Barnsley version of Ismaël could be just what Blackburn needs. The Beşiktaş edition would be disastrous.
Throughout Ismaël’s management career, one consistent trait has been his ability to start swiftly. He won six and drew four of his first ten games at the Hawthorns, and the results did not change until the winter. At Watford, he won his first game 4-0 against QPR, was credited with quickly reorganising an allegedly sluggish and ill-disciplined dressing room, and guided the club on a fine run in which they only lost two games from early October to Christmas. In his first four months as manager of LASK, he lost only one domestic match.
Ismaël normally starts well before the wheels come off, with his one year at Barnsley being the only time they remained firmly linked to their axle. The good news for Blackburn is that he just needs to hold it together for 15 games – 12 till the end of the regular season, followed by three on the path to Wembley and maybe back to the Premier League. Anyone claiming to know Ismaël’s long-term potential is lying.
Why tactical intransigence has been Ismaël’s hallmark?
The 49-year-old Ismaël has had a turbulent career and is tactically adaptable, making it challenging to determine whether he is a good fit or not.
Ismaël has played football in many ways, depending on the instruments at his disposal. At Barnsley and, to a lesser extent, West Brom, he was known for his aggressive, direct style of play combined with a strong press. At Watford, he was significantly more defensive and ran a low block, giving the opposition the majority of possession.
That means it’s impossible to predict whether he’ll stick with the same approximate blueprint that Eustace used so well before his untimely departure – a deep-set defence that stressed quick counter-attacks after the ball was won – or move in a completely other route. He will most likely do what he believes is best for the guys he has access to.
While he is willing to chop and adapt his approach depending on the team he is in charge of, he has also proven rigid in-season, insisting on a bloody-minded consistency in style and system.
At Barnsley, he described their system as “you can take it or leave it, you can love it or hate it, but we stay true to ourselves and have our identity and way of playing football.” It turned out nicely there. Fans at Watford and West Brom were irritated by his seeming rigidity, as he refused to devise a backup plan after results began to deteriorate. Game after game, he would play the same players in the same manner, and the fact that opponents appeared to have figured them out did not appear to influence his thinking.
His sides have historically been excellent defensively, but goal-scoring has been their Achilles heel when things go wrong. This aligns with Blackburn’s strengths and shortcomings this season. Under Eustace, the team was strong defensively but lacked creativity and a consistent goal scorer. Ismaël’s responsibilities align well with those of his new charges.
Hopefully, he will not have too many issues on that front at Ewood Park. The squad may lack flair and technical quality, but its guts is unrivalled – and it’s difficult to argue with owners who aren’t even present. The proprietors haven’t been seen in Blackburn in a decade, and Eustace apparently never spoke with them directly. Everything is done using proxies.
Tossing a coin to predict Ismaël’s success or failure at Blackburn is as reliable as looking through his managerial history for signs of how he will approach the next two months. However, the long view is obscured by a chaotically-run club where contract uncertainty, staff churn, and a lack of investment cause constant issues. If everything goes tragically wrong in the future years, it will most likely be due to the boardroom rather than the manager.
Ismaël excels in sprints, which is exactly what Blackburn is up against right now. Make it to Wembley and book an unexpected ticket to the top flight, and the club’s financial and footballing fortunes might shift radically for years to come. Ismaël’s lack of endurance throughout marathons may not be significant.
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