Transfers & defence – The secrets behind Nottingham Forest’s stunning form
Currently in third position, Nottingham Forest, led by Nuno Espírito Santo, is the Premier League season’s surprise
package. In preseason, the bookmakers made Forest one of the relegation favourites, but they have defied those
predictions by only losing once in their first ten games. Upon their return to the Premier League, Forest’s notorious
transfer approach drew widespread criticism; nevertheless, they have since adopted a clear strategy and made
excellent recent hires.
The improvement on last season is remarkable and there’s optimism growing around the City ground as they aim to
secure their target of a top-half finish. The comprehensive 3-0 win over West Ham was their biggest Premier League
victory since 1996 and it made it three consecutive top-flight wins for the first-time this century. Forest are the only
team to beat Liverpool this season and the camaraderie amongst Nuno’s squad is glaringly obvious with their
defensive record amongst the European elite.
Nottingham Forest’s defensive excellence
Forest’s strong defence has been the main factor in their incredible season-opening performance. Every Premier
League game has been started by goalkeeper Matz Sels, centre-back Murillo, and right-back Ola Aina, while summer
acquisition Nikola Milenković has been an excellent investment. Only RB Leipzig (5) and Liverpool (6) have given up
less goals than Forest (7) in the top five leagues, as the graphic below shows.
The centre-back partnership of Murillo and Milenkovic has been integral to Forest’s success with the duo playing
every minute since the latter’s debut in the win over Southampton in the second game of the season. There’s a perfect
balance between their skill sets with left-footed centre-back Murillo rightly earning rave reviews with Forest in line
to earn a massive profit on the €14m they paid Corinthians in 2023. Murillo has received his first Brazil call-up for
the upcoming international break and his market value has soared to €40 million but Forest will demand a fee in
excess of that with Liverpool and Real Madrid amongst a host of admirers.
Nottingham Forest’s transfer spending since Premier League return
After securing their return to the Premier League in 2022, Forest were subjected to considerable ridicule for their
haphazard recruitment policy. They remarkably signed 30 players across that season and they had the third highest
net spend in the Premier League of €193m. While concerns over their approach were legitimate, Forest’s squad
needed to be transformed after promotion from the Championship as they had a number of players with loan deals
expiring and others below the required quality. While Forest spent €198 million across 2022/23, they only recouped
€5m in player sales, which highlighted the lack of saleable assets at the club.
But to their credit, Forest’s squad building The last three windows have been outstanding, and a sustainable transfer strategy has been put in place. With just
£66 million in net spending since the 2023–2024 season, they are ranked 13th in the Premier League. Despite
spending €235 million, they have crucially recovered €170 million in revenue. With their first-team roster now
replete with marketable commodities like Anthony Elanga, Murillo, Callum Hudson-Odoi, and Morgan Gibbs-White,
Forest has a clear recruitment strategy and business plan in tandem with their first summer back in the Premier
League. With the departure of Brennan Johnson for €55 million and the entrance of Elanga and Hudson-Odoi for a
combined €20.5 million, Sporting director Ross Wilson has been instrumental in Forest’s improvement in their
transfer dealings.
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