Why Dolphins have best shot to earn AFC’s No. 7 seed over Broncos, Bengals
Tagovailoa returned six weeks later, but it took him two games to shake off the rust and get Miami back on track, with the team starting 0-2 upon his return. By that point, the season’s harm was obvious. The Dolphins had gone 1-4 during his absence, including a loss to the Buffalo Bills.
At the halfway mark of Week 9, the Dolphins were 2-6. However, a more favorable stretch of schedule awaited them, and Tagovailoa’s return was critical to their turnaround. Miami’s 6-2 finish allowed them to re-enter the AFC playoffs by outperforming opponents with losing records.
Now, as Week 18 approaches—the final week of the regular season—the Dolphins face a difficult scenario. They’ll need more than a win to make the playoffs for the third year in a row. With the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals also vying for the No. 7 spot, Miami’s fate is no longer solely in its own.
That being said, the Dolphins probably have the greatest chance of the three clubs vying.
The Broncos have the easiest path to the No. 7 seed, followed by the Dolphins and the Bengals.
Denver could have sealed a postseason spot in Week 17 with a victory over the Bengals. However, an overtime loss, sealed by a Tee Higgins touchdown reception, altered the narrative and kept Cincinnati’s postseason chances alive.
Denver faces a “win and in” scenario in Week 18. What’s the challenge? Beating the Kansas City Chiefs. While the Chiefs already hold the NFL’s best record and homefield advantage in the playoffs after defeating the Steelers on Christmas Day, three variables complicate this contest.
For starters, this is a division rivalry, and such games always involve a sense of pride. Denver has always struggled against Kansas City, losing 15 consecutive meetings before breaking the trend in October last year. Finally, while the Chiefs are likely to rest many stars, including Patrick Mahomes, don’t discount Carson Wentz, who will be hungry to prove himself as Kansas City’s backup and keep the team’s record at one defeat this season.
The Broncos’ overtime loss keeps Cincinnati’s playoff hopes alive, but the Bengals face the most difficult road to the No. 7 spot. To secure the place, Cincinnati not only needs to defeat the Steelers on the road, but they also need the Dolphins to lose or tie with the Jets at
The Steelers, who are now on a three-game losing streak, will be desperate to win and recapture the AFC North, which the Ravens took last week. Despite struggling offensively—averaging only 10 points per game in their last three games—the Steelers may find some comfort against a poor Bengals defense.
Cincinnati has a horrible recent record against the Steelers, losing 1-5 in their last six games. However, their only win during that time came at Pittsburgh in November 2022, giving them a glimmer of hope going into this game.
While the Broncos have a simpler “win and in” approach, the Dolphins’ scenario, while not ideal, has enough elements to work in their favor.
First, Miami must overcome the Jets, which, given the circumstances, should be possible. The Jets are embroiled in disarray, and the organization appears eager to put this season behind them. With a 4-12 record and six losses in their previous seven games, New York isn’t exactly a formidable opponent. Although this is a division rivalry game, it lacks the fervor seen in other divisional contests this week. Not to add that Miami upset them in overtime in Week 14.
Second, the Dolphins need the Broncos to lose. As previously stated, Kansas City has already secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed and has nothing to gain or lose from this game.
Meanwhile, Denver has struggled in close games recently, falling to the Chargers and Bengals by a single point each. However, the Broncos have performed well at home this season, with only two losses at Empower Field.
Miami’s main concern for Week 18 is the health of Tagovailoa, who suffered a hip injury against the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. Coach Mike McDaniel would prefer to have his top quarterback, despite Tyler Huntley’s impressive performance as a fill-in.
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