The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft is taking shape at the midway point of the 2024 season. Six teams have at least a 10% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.
We called on our NFL Nation reporters to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises after 10 weeks. How did each team lose control of its season? Are major changes ahead in the offseason? Then NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid spun it forward and suggested how each team might use the No. 1 pick. Which teams need a franchise quarterback? And which prospects could fit and fill a big need?
Let’s start with the Giants, who currently have the best odds at the No. 1 pick.
New York Giants (2-8)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.9%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 62.7%
Where has it gone wrong? There’s a lot to choose from here. The Giants are last in the NFL with 15.4 points scored per game, they have given up the most yards per rush (5.3) and their special teams have been terrible. That covers a good chunk of all three phases. It’s hard to win that way.
Are major changes on the horizon? All signs point toward the Giants getting ready to bench quarterback Daniel Jones. That is coming sooner rather than later. As for general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll, owner John Mara has said they’re safe and that the team is committed to them. But will that stick if the Giants finish 4-13 and/or 0-9 at home? — Jordan Raanan
What could they do with the top pick? I like the fit for Miami quarterback Cam Ward. With Jones not likely to start for the Giants next season (and perhaps not with the team at all), New York will be searching for its new franchise signal-caller. Ward is an electric playmaker who can create and make all the throws. Daboll could help him develop over time and limit his decision-making mistakes. — Reid
New England Patriots (3-7)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 64.1%
Where has it gone wrong? They started seven different offensive line configurations in the first seven games — a result of poor performance and missed evaluations on free-agent signings Chukwuma Okorafor and Nick Leverett — and it contributed to the fourth-worst offense in that span. A less-talented receiver group hurt, too, as did the losses of center David Andrews (shoulder), linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (torn pectoral muscle), safety Jabrill Peppers (commissioner exempt list) and defensive tackle Christian Barmore (blood clots).
Are major changes on the horizon? Nothing major. The biggest change came in Week 6 when rookie Drake Maye became the starter over Jacoby Brissett. He has since elevated the hopes of the organization with his play and leadership. — Mike Reiss
What could they do with the top pick? New England just drafted a quarterback (Maye) in April, so I’m looking at Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. as an option. The protection in front of Maye is arguably the weakest spot on the roster. The Pats need multiple starters along the offensive line, and Banks would provide stability at tackle. He has the power and quick feet necessary to protect Maye’s blind side. — Reid
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 15.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 59.2%
Where has it gone wrong? It’s a mess. The defense is one of the worst units in the NFL (last in yards per game and 26th in scoring), and the offense can’t produce early in games. As a result, the Jaguars are playing from behind most of the time. Injuries have kept their best players out (most notably Christian Kirk), and Trevor Lawrence hasn’t elevated his play. Now Lawrence will sit out his second straight game Sunday because of a shoulder injury.
Are major changes on the horizon? Owner Shad Khan said this was the best Jaguars team ever assembled and that he expected the playoffs in 2024. So given the 2-8 record, coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke are definitely on the hot seat. A decision could come as early as their bye next week on what happens next. Still, Khan has been patient in the past with big decisions. It’s possible he could give them one more season to turn it around. — Michael DiRocco
What could they do with the top pick? The Jaguars could be picking at the top of the draft for the third time in five seasons. Quarterback isn’t an option for them after signing Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million extension. So how about Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter? The top prospect on my draft board, Hunter would give the Jaguars a versatile option on either side of the ball; they need help at both receiver and cornerback. — Reid
Tennessee Titans (2-7)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 54.2%
Where has it gone wrong? The Titans’ offensive line, specifically right tackle, has been a disaster. The lack of protection is evident in third-and-long situations, and the Titans can’t use developing routes because there is no time for them to be completed. They’ve scored 20 or more points only twice this season.
Are major changes on the horizon? There don’t appear to be big changes coming in the front office or with the coaching staff. Controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk made surprising moves in firing general manager Jon Robinson in 2022 and coach Mike Vrabel in January. Current general manager Ran Carthon and coach Brian Callahan appear to be safe for now. But don’t be surprised if the Titans bring in a new special teams coordinator. And meanwhile, the jury is still out on quarterback Will Levis as the future starter. — Turron Davenport
What could they do with the top pick? With the turnover problems of Levis, and Mason Rudolph being a career backup, the Titans are another team that probably would use the top pick on a franchise quarterback. All eyes will be on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Ward. Sanders’ skill set would translate well to Callahan’s system because of his elite accuracy and decisiveness when he’s protected. — Reid
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 51.6%
Where has it gone wrong? There are few silver linings for the Silver and Black. The lack of a true No. 1 quarterback (Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder have all taken snaps) and the league’s worst rushing attack already cost Luke Getsy his job as offensive coordinator, and things aren’t looking up.
Are major changes on the horizon? With Getsy, offensive line coach James Cregg and quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello all fired, all eyes turn to Antonio Pierce. The head coach reinvigorated the organization as an interim last fall and earned the permanent gig as a result. But if things continue to spiral, it would not be hard to imagine another total rebuild around a top draft pick. — Paul Gutierrez
What could they do with the top pick? Sanders would help this team a lot. After two years of uneven play at quarterback and 10 weeks of seesawing between signal-callers, the Raiders are a strong contender to draft a passer in April. Remember, Las Vegas missed out on the top six guys in 2024, when they all went before the team was on the clock at No. 13. Sanders is an ideal fit; he has the poise, ball placement and charisma that fits perfectly with this organization. — Reid
Carolina Panthers (3-7)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 57.1%
Where has it gone wrong? The initial poor play of quarterback Bryce Young made for a rough start to the season, but the bigger issue has been injuries. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Derrick Brown sustained a season-ending injury in the opener. Then linebacker Shaq Thompson tore his Achilles. Outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum didn’t make his debut until last Sunday. A healthy defense would at least give Carolina a chance.
Are major changes on the horizon? Second-round pick Jonathon Brooks should be ready after the bye week, but running back Chuba Hubbard is playing so well that the rookie might not get many looks. The looming question is if Young, who has won two straight games, will keep the starting job or if Andy Dalton gets another shot at it. The future at quarterback remains the focus. — David Newton
What could they do with the top pick? Young has played better since being reinserted as the starter, and that probably keeps the Panthers from drafting another signal-caller. The Panthers are still in the rebuilding phase, and they need to add young talent with high potential all over. Hunter would fit, and Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham has impressive traits and a lot of upside. Pairing Graham with Brown would give the Panthers a rock-solid interior defensive front. — Reid
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