Top spot in the World Rugby rankings is up for grabs this weekend as the Springboks could drop as low as third, with the All Blacks and Ireland vying for a place at the summit.
South Africa will meet England at Twickenham on Saturday, confident that a win over Steve Borthwick’s side will keep them at the top of the rankings. However, a loss against the team they eliminated from the World Cup last year might drop them as low as third, depending on the outcomes in Dublin and Paris.
If South Africa loses, Ireland and New Zealand might conclude the weekend as the top-ranked nations in World Rugby, with plenty of room for movement in the top 20.
With the assistance of World Rugby, we examine the possibilities.
World Rugby rankings permutations
Ireland and New Zealand cannot replace the Springboks as the world’s number one team if Rassie Erasmus’ charges upset England in the Autumn Nations Series match at Twickenham on Saturday, regardless of their outcomes against Argentina and France, respectively.
However, if the Boks lose against England, New Zealand will take the top spot if they defeat France at the Stade de France. It would be the first time the All Blacks had topped the rankings since the 2019 World Cup semifinals.
For Ireland to reclaim the top spot, which they lost to the All Blacks last weekend, Andy Farrell’s men must not only defeat Argentina but also hope that South Africa and New Zealand lose.
Ireland fell from first to third place in the standings after losing to New Zealand, and they might go even further if they lose by more than 15 points at home to Argentina and both the Springboks and All Blacks win. Argentina would move up two spots to third, completing an all-southern hemisphere top three for the first time since 2021.
It is also possible that Ireland will tumble to fifth place in the standings. This would happen if they lose by more than 15 points against Argentina and France beat the All Blacks, whatever of the England-South Africa outcome.
England plummeted to seventh place in the rankings after losing to Australia last weekend, their lowest ranking since February 2016, but a draw with South Africa would be enough to push them beyond Scotland in sixth place. The Scots meet Portugal this weekend and will not be able to raise their rating even if they win convincingly.
England, on the other hand, cannot advance beyond sixth place because the margin between them and France and Argentina is too large, even if they pound South Africa.
Australia gained one spot to ninth place with a win over Borthwick’s men last weekend, and they can move up further if they defeat Wales by more than 15 points and England loses by the same number. If this happens, England will plummet to eighth place, a joint all-time low.
Italy’s stunning defeat to Argentina last week saw them drop two places in the standings, to 10th, but the Azzurri have the chance to reclaim at least one spot. They will need to not only overcome Georgia, but also pray that Fiji loses against Spain.
Warren Gatland’s charges welcome Australia in Cardiff hoping to snap their 10-Test losing skid; if they fail, Wales will plummet to an all-time low of 12th if that loss is combined with a Georgia victory over Italy; Wales cannot slide any lower than 12th, however.
Eddie Jones’ Japan squad may jump Samoa into 13th place if they beat Uruguay in France this weekend.
Georgia has the opportunity to make history by entering the top ten for the first time since the rankings were launched in 2003, but they must beat Italy by more than 15 points. If they do, only Wales can deny them their historic place by defeating the Wallabies by a same score.
Portugal can only increase their standing if they beat Scotland for the first time and their victory is combined with a Japan loss, but a draw for the Brave Blossoms would necessitate Os Lobos winning by more than 15 points.
Porgual cannot lose rating points by losing versus Scotland, but they could drop a ranking spot if Spain upsets Fiji or the United States defeats Tonga by more than 15 points.
View the variations and current global standings below.
Ireland (3) 90.58 vs. Argentina (5) 85.60
Ireland wins by 15 points or less: Ireland 90.78, Argentina 85.40.
Ireland wins by more than 15 points: Ireland 90.88, Argentina 85.30.
Draw: Ireland 89.78, Argentina 86.40.
Argentina wins by 15 points or less: Ireland 88.78, Argentina 87.40.
Argentina wins by more than 15 points – Ireland 87.88; Argentina 88.30.
Scotland (7) 82.70 vs. Portugal (15) 68.82.
Scotland wins by 15 points or less, 82.70 to 68.82 (no change).
Scotland wins by more than 15 points, 82.70 to 68.82 (no change).
Draw: Scotland 81.70, Portugal 69.82.
Portugal wins by 15 points or less: Scotland 80.69, Portugal 70.82.
Portugal wins by more than 15 points: Scotland 79.69, Portugal 71.82.
England (7) 82.62 vs. South Africa (1) 92.46.
England wins by 15 points or less (84.31 to South Africa’s 90.78).
England wins by more than 15 points: England 85.15, South Africa 89.94.
Draw: England 83.31, South Africa 91.78.
South Africa wins by 15 points or less: England 82.31, South Africa 92.78.
South Africa wins by more than 15 points: England 82.15, South Africa 92.94
France (4) 86.96 vs. New Zealand (2) 91.21.
France won by fewer than 15 points (88.08 vs. 90.09) and by more than 15 points (88.64 vs. 89.53), respectively.
Draw: France 87.08, New Zealand 91.09.
New Zealand wins by 15 points or less: France 86.08, New Zealand 92.09.
New Zealand wins by more than 15 points: France 85.64, New Zealand 92.53.
ITALY (10) 78.67 against GEORGIA (12) Italy won by 15 points or less (78.92, 73.85), Georgia won by more than 15 points (79.04, 73.03), Italy drew (77.92, 74.85), Georgia won by 15 points or less (76.92, 75.85), and Georgia won by more than 15 points (76.04, 76.73).
Wales (11) 75.04 vs Australia (8) Wales wins by 15 points or less (81.14 vs. 76.35). Australia scored 79.83.
Wales wins by more than 15 points: Wales 77.01, Australia 79.17.
Draw: Wales 75.35, Australia 80.82.
Australia wins by 15 points or less—Wales 74.35, Australia 81.83
Australia wins by more than 15 points: Wales 74.01, Australia 82.17.
Latest World Rugby standings as of November 15, 2024.
South Africa scored 92.46, New Zealand scored 91.21, Ireland scored 90.58, France scored 86.96, Argentina scored 85.60, Scotland scored 82.70, England scored 82.62, Australia scored 81.14, Fiji scored 80.07, Wales scored 75.04, Georgia scored 74.10, Samoa scored 72.68, Japan scored 72.31, Portugal scored 68.82, USA scored 67.49, and Spain scored 67.10.
Tonga scored 66.87, Uruguay 66.58, and Romania 63.87.
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