The coefficient battle is hotting up and we explain why its’ so important for future Euro campaigns
To go to the Champions League, the Scottish Premiership champions had to go through three qualifying rounds. The runners-up and our fourth-place team had to play three rounds to qualify for the CONFERENCE League. The winner of the Scottish Cup will have to go through FOUR rounds to qualify for the Europa League. And the fifth-placed team did not even enter Europe.
That was the sad state of affairs that Scottish football faced at the end of next season. Starting this season at seventeenth place in the UEFA rankings was a significant decline from the reasonably lofty position of eleventh last season and ninth for two years – we hadn’t been higher since 1988.
Just two European game weeks ago, we were fifteenth and had earned fewer coefficient points this season than every nation above us, except Israel. Analysts and supercomputers estimated that Scotland would rank between sixteenth and twentieth. It looked grim. But after just a few fantastic weeks, our attitude has dramatically changed. We’ve raised our season total by about 50% in just two weeks, going from 3.4 to five points.
As a result, we have risen four places from 17th to 13th, behind twelfth-placed Austria by 1.7 points (four victories plus one draw).
Two weeks ago, three Scottish clubs preserved a clean sheet in Europe for the first time in the group stage era, with two wins and a draw. Celtic regained confidence after a 0-0 draw in Italy, and they put their foot down this week to secure their most stunning European victory since defeating Barcelona 2-1 at Celtic Park in 2012.
The 3-1 home win over RB Leipzig marked the first time they had won two Champions League games in a season since 2012/13, and the first time they had won three in a row at home since 2007/08 under Gordon Strachan. They are now only ONE WIN away from almost certain progression to the knockout rounds, having already played both of their Pot 1 teams.
Their remaining games are favorable, which is why Opta Stats classified Celtic’s schedule as the “least difficult” among all 36 clubs. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in the Champions League; their next opponents, Club Brugge, recently defeated Aston Villa, but there is an opportunity for Celtic to reach what may well be their best Champions League finish in many years.
Rangers did what was expected of them two weeks ago by defeating the former European champions from Bucharest, who are a far cry from their glory days, but the attacking nature of the 4-0 win – their biggest group stage victory in more than 20 years – gave fans hope that they could perform better in Europe than their domestic form has suggested thus far.
Rangers’ 1-1 draw away to Olympiacos was a fine, battling performance, and it puts them just one win away from the 10 points they will most certainly need to reach the knockout stage. Rangers’ next ties are less favorable; unlike Celtic, they have not faced either of their Pot 1 counterparts, the two English heavyweights in the Europa League. Before that, Rangers will face the fifth-placed team in Ligue 1, where they will be underdogs once more, and if outcomes follow the bookmakers’ predictions, it may be win or bust in their final game at home to Union St.-Gilloise.
The new model provides the most opportunity for smaller teams in Europe competing in the Conference League. Hearts are, of course, one of these, and games against equally low-ranked clubs have provided them with an opportunity to shine. However, nothing should detract from their outstanding achievement in Europe. Like Celtic, this might be the strongest season we’ve seen from our ‘third force’ in many years. Despite failing to win three consecutive games in Europe for the first time in history, losing 2-0 at home to Bundesliga club FC Heidenheim, their first two triumphs imply they are likely only ONE POINT away from reaching the knockout rounds. This would be the furthest Hearts have went in Europe since 1989, when Bayern Munich narrowly defeated them in the quarterfinals of the UEFA Cup.
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