FC St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig: Preview and Prediction

FC St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig: Preview and Prediction

RB Leipzig will be looking to stay up with Bayern Munich when they face FC St. Pauli in the Bundesliga on Sunday night.

St. Pauli is still looking for their first points of the new Bundesliga season as they prepare to play RB Leipzig at Millerntor-Stadion. The newly promoted team has had a difficult start, losing all three league matches thus far, but RB Leipzig has started positively, sitting third with seven points from their first three games.

After being promoted to the first division, St. Pauli was anticipated to have a difficult struggle, and their early performances reflect this. They are currently second from the bottom and have yet to earn a point in the league. Manager Alexander Blessin’s team has failed to create an impression in attack, scoring the fewest anticipated goals (xG), having the fewest major opportunities, and averaging the fewest shots on goal per match in the Bundesliga.

Their most recent encounter, a 3-1 loss to Augsburg, emphasized these difficulties. Despite controlling 57% of the ball, they failed to translate that dominance into useful chances, giving up six great chances. Blessin, who has only won once in four competitive games since taking charge, will need to find a solution fast if his team is to avoid being relegated early.

In contrast, RB Leipzig has had a solid start to the season, with two victories and a tie in their first three games. Their highlight was a spectacular comeback victory over Bayer Leverkusen, which snapped the opponent’s 35-game undefeated streak. Despite going down 2-0, Leipzig fought to win 3-2, demonstrating their perseverance and attacking brilliance.

However, Marco Rose’s side was unable to build on that performance in their following league game, drawing 0-0 with Union Berlin. Furthermore, they suffered a Champions League defeat, falling 2-1 to Atletico Madrid after allowing a late goal. Despite these setbacks, Leipzig remains a tough team, having gone undefeated in their previous 17 competitive matches before to the loss to Atletico and being typically reliable in the league.The Hard Tackle examines potential lineups and strategy for this highly anticipated contest.

Team News and Tactics: FC St. Pauli

St. Pauli is struggling with multiple injury issues as they prepare to meet RB Leipzig. Goalkeepers Sascha Burchert and Soren Ahlers are still unavailable, leaving Nikola Vasilj as the top choice between the posts. Midfielder Conor Metcalfe is also out and isn’t scheduled to return until early October, although Robert Wagner might return to the team this weekend, providing some optimism in the center of the park.

The offensive unit is also decimated, with forwards Maurides, Morgan Guilavogui, and Simon Zoller all sidelined for this match. Their absences limit manager Alexander Blessin’s choices up front, but the trio is expected to be ready for selection next month. These failures might have a huge influence on St. Pauli’s ability to generate opportunities and score against a strong Leipzig defense.

To face these problems, St. Pauli is anticipated to line up in a 3-4-2-1 shape. Nikola Vasilj will start in goal, with Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, and Adam Dźwigała completing the back three for defensive stability. Philipp Treu and Lars Ritzka will play as wing-backs, helping both defense and offense on the sides. Jackson Irvine and Carlo Boukhalfa are expected to form a central midfield partnership to bring stability and creativity in the middle of the pitch.

Moving forward, Elias Saad and Dapo Afolayan will play as offensive midfielders, linking play and creating opportunities for lone striker Johannes Eggestein. With few attacking options owing to injury, St. Pauli will rely on their midfielders and wing-backs to contribute offensively if they are to pose a danger to RB Leipzig’s defense.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Vasilj, Wahl, Smith, Mets; Treu, Irvine, Boukhalfa, Ritzka; Afolayan, Saad; Eggestein.

FC St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig: Preview and Prediction.

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig has numerous players out for the trip to St. Pauli. Midfielder Xaver Schlager is sidelined until January with a cruciate ligament injury, which is a huge setback to the team’s midfield depth. Assan Ouedraogo and Kevin Kampl will both miss Sunday’s game owing to injury, leaving manager Marco Rose with little choices in the midfield. Despite these withdrawals, Leipzig will want to continue their great start to the Bundesliga season.

The Leipzig midfield will be reshuffled, with Nicolas Seiwald and Arthur Vermeeren expected to compete for starting spots alongside Amadou Haidara. Both Seiwald and Vermeeren appeared in the UEFA Champions League encounter against Atletico Madrid and might be counted upon to provide stability and creativity in midfield. In defence, Willi Orban and Castello Lukeba will start in front of experienced goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi, assuring a strong backline to block St. Pauli’s onslaught.

RB Leipzig are anticipated to use a 4-4-2 formation. Peter Gulacsi will be the final line of defence, with full-backs Benjamin Henrichs and David Raum providing breadth and defensive coverage. Willi Orban and Castello Lukeba will play central defensive roles, hoping to keep the St. Pauli strikers at bay. Arthur Vermeeren and Amadou Haidara will lead the midfield, with Antonio Nusa and Xavi Simons providing backup in broader areas.

Up forward, Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda will attempt to test the St. Pauli defense with their speed and finishing abilities. The offensive combination will be critical in turning Leipzig’s midfield dominance into goals, especially against a St. Pauli team that has struggled defensively in their first few games. With numerous important players out, Leipzig will rely on depth and tactical flexibility to produce a favorable outcome.

Probable lineup (4-4-2): Gulacsi, Henrichs, Orban, Castello, Raum; Nusa, Haidara, Vermeeren, Simons; Sesko, Openda.

FC St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats
FC St. Pauli has lost their past three competitive games against RB Leipzig without scoring a goal. This is their longest losing run against a team in German professional football. RB Leipzig has only had a longer losing run once, against FC Bayern (2021-2022) and Borussia Dortmund (2020-2021).
RB Leipzig is now unbeaten in their previous 14 Bundesliga games (W9 D5), the longest current unbeaten streak in the Bundesliga. If they avoid defeat against St. Pauli, they would equal their club record of 15 straight games without a loss, which was established under Ralf Rangnick between January and May 2019.
FC St. Pauli has lost three games in a row to begin the Bundesliga season, the first time in nine seasons. Their current goal differential of -5 is likewise a negative club record, as they have lost 14 of their previous 15 Bundesliga (D1) games, including the last seven.
With seven points from their first three games, RB Leipzig is off to its best start to a Bundesliga season in four years. They also scored seven points at this stage of the 2020/21 season. The previous time they had more than seven points after three games was in 2019/20 (9).
FC St. Pauli has lost each of their previous six Bundesliga home games over several seasons, indicating a continuous bad club record. Only five previous Bundesliga teams have suffered seven or more home defeats, the most recent being Darmstadt (7 losses) in the 2023/24 season.

Openda has established himself as an important member in their offensive lineup. The Belgian attacker has already made an impression with his quickness, agility, and goal-scoring instincts. His ability to sneak behind defenders and his precise finishing make him a constant danger to any team.

In this encounter against FC St. Pauli, Openda’s pace and placement can exploit vulnerabilities in a defense that has been leaky and fragile, losing numerous goals in its first two games. With RB Leipzig trying to keep their undefeated streak going and compete for the top place, Openda’s goal-scoring ability will be critical. His connection with Benjamin Sesko up front may produce a powerful offensive force, which will undoubtedly cause issues for St. Pauli’s backline.

The Belgian striker’s presence in the box, along with his ability to link up play and press high, allows him to lure defenders out of position, providing opportunities for his teammates. His performance in this encounter might be critical in ensuring Leipzig maintains their excellent start to the season.

Prediction: FC St. Pauli 0–3 RB Leipzig.

RB Leipzig should have enough quality to easily beat a struggling St. Pauli team, especially considering their recent form and attacking flair. St. Pauli’s defensive flaws make it probable that Leipzig’s offensive squad, lead by Lois Openda, will have plenty of scoring chances. The Hard Tackle forecasts a 3-0 victory for Marco Rose and his team.

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