Michael Cunningham: Falcons get best QB available, but Kirk Cousins comes with risks

FILE - Minnesota Vikings' Kirk Cousins throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in Detroit. Kirk Cousins, Chris Jones and Mike Evans are among the best players who will be available on the open market unless their teams use a franchise tag by March 5. They’ll be joined by running backs Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, edge rushers Josh Allen, Brian Burns and Danielle Hunter and several other talented players.(AP Photo/Duane Burleson, File)

Michael Cunningham: Falcons sign the finest quarterback available, but Kirk Cousins comes with hazards.

Cunningham: Falcons shouldn't splurge on free agent Kirk Cousins

ATLANTA — The Falcons have their quarterback. Now the issue is whether Kirk Cousins will be ready for the start of the 2024 season. That’s the danger of signing a 35-year-old quarterback who tore his right Achilles on October 30. According to the Ohio State College of Medicine, returning to sports “may take (nine) to 12 months depending on the severity of the injury and the nature of the sport the patient desires to play.” Cousins aspires to be an NFL quarterback. He needs to be able to maneuver away from huge, fast opponents who want to tackle him while looking downfield to pass. Cousins had some movement before the injury. It is likely that he will have limited movement following his Achilles surgery. Despite my worries, there are obvious benefits for the Falcons in signing Cousins. He’s obviously a step above last year’s starters, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Cousins was the finest quarterback on the market, especially after Baker Mayfield (Bucs) and Russell Wilson (Steelers) decided to go elsewhere.

Cousins had a Pro Bowl season in 2022 and was performing well when he sustained an Achilles injury. He remains a highly accurate passer as he ages. The Falcons’ key will be enabling Cousins to work from a clear pocket. According to Pro Football Focus, Cousins’ 95.8 grade while not under pressure over the last five seasons is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the top rating in that time period. Last season, the Falcons were 26th in scoring offensively. They should fairly hope to improve on that figure in 2024 with Cousins at QB (if he stays healthy). Cousins will be backed up by a strong offensive line that includes playmakers Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons can utilize the draft (they have the eighth overall choice) and free-agent signings to add more great skill players or shore up their defense. Concerns about Cousins’ rehabilitation from Achilles surgery were one reason I thought he was too risky for the Falcons. Financial commitment is the other. Could the Falcons sign Cousins and still have enough salary-cap space to address other needs? Could they finish up with “dead” money on the cap if his play declines dramatically, like Matt Ryan did?

D. Orlando Ledbetter, an AJC Falcons beat reporter, says that Cousins will sign a four-year, $180 million contract. The agreement will contain $100 million in guarantees: $90 million in 2024 and 2025 (combined), plus $10 million in 2026. The Falcons have virtually committed to Cousins for $100 million over two seasons. He will be 36 years old at the start of the 2024 season. In 2022, the Broncos agreed to a similar agreement with Wilson, a better and younger quarterback than Cousins. That contract exploded in Denver’s face after Wilson had two unproductive seasons as a starter. After dismissing Wilson over the weekend, the Broncos will have $85 million in “dead” salary cap money on the books for the next two seasons. That money can be utilized to sign additional players. We’ll see if the Cousins contract’s salary-cap burden prevents the Falcons from signing strong free agents at other, critical positions in free agency (pass rusher and wide receiver). Meanwhile, acquiring Cousins will, at the absolute least, lift the Falcons out of their two-year QB desert. Ryan, the franchise’s best-ever player, was abruptly released following Arthur Blank’s failed effort to acquire DeShaun Watson. Marcus Mariota was a decent backup quarterback before previous coach Arthur Smith replaced him with Ridder. Last season, the Falcons made the mistake of naming Ridder as the starter, and he fell short of expectations. The Falcons have a solid quarterback again. The issue is when Cousins will be healthy enough to demonstrate it.

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