Finance expert rules out Brennan Johnson transfer defence in £47.5m Nottingham Forest FFP blow

Latest Nottingham Forest news from NottinghamshireLive as the Reds’ charge of breaching the Premier League ’s financial rules is assessed

A financial expert thinks it is doubtful that Tottenham’s record-breaking purchase of Brennan Johnson from Nottingham Forest will be taken into consideration as a mitigating element in the club’s allegations of breaking Premier League financial rules.

However, Stefan Borson, a former financial advisor for Manchester City, thinks the Reds will come out on top when an impartial panel renders a decision because the accusation only pertains to a single year of the Premier League’s sustainability and profitability regulations.

Forest was reported to an independent panel in January after being accused of breaking the Premier League’s financial regulations.They could be subject to penalties, such as a reduction in points, when they appear before the independent commission the following week.

Forest’s defence will be heavily reliant on Johnson’s £47.5 million transfer to Tottenham on the day of the summer transfer deadline. The Premier League’s accounting timetable was not met by the sale of the Nigel Doughty Academy graduate. Having turned down lower offers from Brentford earlier in the summer, the Reds contend that by holding out until the very end of the transfer window, they were able to secure a larger transfer fee for Johnson.

Forest won promotion to the Premier League for the 2022–2023 season after spending two of those three seasons in the Championship, according to the case, which concerns an evaluation of the club’s finances during a three-year period that concluded in that season.

Premier League clubs are only permitted to lose a maximum of £105 million over a rolling three-year period, or £35 million every season, according to financial regulations. This is lowered for promoted teams, therefore the Reds are only allowed to lose £61 million over the last three seasons—£13 million for the two Championship seasons before promotion and an additional £35 million for the most recent one. Although the team signed a number of players after being promoted to the Premier League, it is unknown how much they have gone above the quota.

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Speaking on talkSPORT, Borson stated: “Given the aggravating circumstances, I would be a little worried if I were a Forest supporter because it appears like they spent carelessly, which would raise their penalty level even further.

Further down the scale, though, is the fact that they only violated one year of Premier League financial fair play. Since a promoted team is entitled to an EFL allowance for two of those years and a Premier League allowance for one of those years, in essence, £61 million was the target. Since they were there or thereabouts in the two EFL years, they may be able to get away with the first two of the period, in part because they didn’t violate by much and in part because the Premier League isn’t supposed to handle such matters.

In addition to the possibility of an aggravating factor related to the recklessness of the spending, I would estimate that Forest is likely looking at two to three points. Additionally, the appeal commission described Sheffield Wednesday’s sale of their stadium as having “golden mitigation,” which Nottingham Forest is implying will be Brennan Johnson.

“It’s highly improbable that the documentation pertaining to Johnson aligns with the tone of their appeal, so I believe they won’t receive mitigation for Johnson. Consequently, the focus will be on the extent of the recklessness and their handling of the two-year gap when they were in the EFL as aggravating factors.”

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