If Mike Fisher of SI.com is correct when he describes the Cowboys deal for Trey Lance as a “dart throw,” then it seems like the dart is still in the air. That’s as good as it gets for Lance and the Cowboys for the time being. As a backup to Dak Prescott, Dallas sent a fourth-round pick to the 49ers in exchange for Lance.
But it appears that Dallas doesn’t really need Lance anymore, since Prescott, fresh off an almost MVP performance, is expected to cash in with a big new contract. Not surprisingly, Fisher also claims that the Cowboys have decided not to pick up Lance’s option for a fifth season. They would have had to pay $22 million for that during the 2025 season, which was never going to happen unless Lance was a legitimate contender to take Prescott’s spot.
Not taking place. According to Fisher, a more plausible scenario:
“Lance does not outplay Prescott. However, this summer’s performance by the latter player is so promising that Dallas is able to deal him—along with Cooper Rush—for more than just a fourth-round choice.
In other words, “winning the trade.”
Trey Lance Must Participate
Of course, that would mean winning the deal, but it’s difficult to understand how Lance adds value in any way by sitting out games.
Without playing a snap for the Cowboys during the season, Lance maintained his position as the third-string quarterback behind starting quarterback Dak Prescott and backup Cooper Rush, who filled in for Prescott for seven games this season. Lance, who turns 24 in May, is still a young player, but he needs to get on the field because he is about to start his fourth NFL season.
In his eight career NFL appearances, he has only thrown 56 passes.
Even at $5.3 million, it seems a bit excessive to keep Lance on the roster at this time. Three quarterbacks are not really necessary.
Rush has a one-year, $2.25 million option to remain on the team as the backup. That option is not only more cost-effective than cutting Rush loose and moving Lance up to No. 2, but it also promotes greater stability, since Rush has spent 10 of his 12 NFL seasons with the Cowboys.
However, maintaining Rush would mean giving up Lance. And for a guy who did not contribute anything to the team during the season, that means giving him a salary of $5.3 million and forfeiting the 2024 fourth-round pick.
Cowboys Make a Trade to Cover Deal’s Unlikely Cost
Thus, the dart stays in the air, but it seems like there is less and less chance to win this deal. The Cowboys might try to trade Lance once more, but when the 2024 season gets underway, who would trade a third-round pick for a guy who hasn’t played in the NFL in almost two years?
Obtaining a fourth-round pick in exchange for Lance would be difficult enough, but teams looking to take a low-risk, high-reward bet with the third choice in the 2021 draft might theoretically take that chance. Teams like the Raiders or Denver, for instance, might try to take a chance on a relatively youthful veteran like Lance.
In either case, Lance and the Cowboys are running out of time. He has little chance of wanting to stay a backup until 2024, and Dallas will soon lose the opportunity to recover the cost of the trade if they don’t sell him now.
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