What the Dallas Cowboys do with Dak Prescott’s contract will tell us a lot.
Our primary focus is on finding a new defensive coordinator to replace Dan Quinn, who is now the head coach of the Washington Commanders. However, we continue to look for clues regarding the Dallas Cowboys’ next season in an uncertain year. Mike McCarthy is now a lame duck head coach, and many of the existing coaches are in the final year of their contracts, which might result in a massive exodus on the defensive side, with several following Quinn to Washington. Jerry Jones, the owner and general manager, has made vague noises about being “all in” for this year, which adds to the uncertainty.
In a conversation with our managing editor Dave Halprin, he said something that could tell us more than anything else about the team’s plans: how they manage Dak Prescott’s contract. It made a lot of sense to me. Here is why.
As with so many of the team’s decisions, it all starts with the salary cap. According to Over the Cap, they are currently around $20 million in the red as the league year approaches. Prescott’s deal can be managed to generate more cap space than any other, but it will not be the only one they have to work with.
They are going to need space as they have several of their own free agents to consider re-signing, such as Tyron Smith. But there are two things they can do with Prescott. The one most commonly addressed is to extend him. Like McCarthy, Prescott is in the final year of his current deal, with a huge cap hit for this season. The most commonly discussed thing is to extend him. That would generate over $26 million in space. It is a logical step to take with the franchise quarterback.
There is a big assumption there, however, and you all know the old saying about those. That is the commitment of the management to Prescott as the QB to help this team break through the playoff barrier that has instead repeatedly broken them. Just like with McCarthy, there is a valid question as to whether he is the one to do it.
Prescott has bombed in a number of key losses during the last three seasons. He is an exceptional human being, as proven by his receipt of the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. However, there is insufficient proof that he can consistently provide high-level play on the field when the team requires it the most. Extending him with what will be a massive new annual wage binds the team to him for further years.
They don’t have to go that way. They can also conduct another reorganization, which will increase his dead money hit for a few years, but this has not been a deterrent in the past. That will still result in roughly $22 million in space and give them a lot more flexibility. It would put Prescott in a position to demonstrate that he is the quarterback they need.
That raises a few obvious questions. If they do not renew him, he will become a free agency after this year. The NFL is a quarterback-hungry league, with many teams dissatisfied with their existing choices. Prescott’s troubles may not dissuade some of those from making large offers.
There have been many cases of QBs who had their struggles with one team, but found success with a change of scenery and coaching. The most recent example is Jared Goff, who led the Detroit Lions to the NFC championship – an achievement that has eluded Dallas for decades, and is thought to be the make or break for McCarthy this year. It may be for Prescott as well.
If that is the case, it will demand even more from Prescott this year, because the price tag should be huge given the market for quarterbacks of any talent at all. A willingness to move on is implied if the choice is to restructure rather than extend.
That is the second big question. What is the plan for replacing Prescott if needed? This is where Dave dropped a thought that is likely to set a few people off. This may be exactly why they acquired Trey Lance.
I’ll allow some of you a moment to restore control.
Consider this: why did they waste draft capital to trade for Lance? He was a cheap backup last year, but in 2024, he will have a salary and cap impact of $5.3 million. That’s a high price for an unproven backup. Lance’s contract is also coming to an end this year. This is his one chance to show himself. Remember that he was just brought in late in camp last year, so the team hasn’t had much of an opportunity to evaluate him. This will be his first full offseason with the Cowboys.
But they must have believed there was something there to justify the move. It was a little confusing at the time. Still, Dallas’ track record in talent evaluation lends legitimacy if they believe he has actual potential. As previously said, coaches frequently believe they can get more out of their players than past staffs could. While Lance’s status as a previous number three overall pick is one of the team’s priorities, there appears to be more to this.
A lot obviously depends on Lance’s performance in training camp and especially the three preseason games, where Lance will get his most intense evaluation. If he does well, the idea of him being the alternative to Prescott after the 2024 season starts to seem more tangible.
Everything will revolve around what they do with Prescott. Going with a reorganization would leave those alternatives open. They could still extend Prescott later in the season if he agrees. Extending Prescott instead of restructuring would indicate that they intend to continue with the veteran for the foreseeable future.
In some ways, an extension would bring certainty for the Cowboys. A restructure adds uncertainty, but it also suggests a huge shakeup at the quarterback position and coaching staff if 2024 fails. Given that anything less than advancing to the conference round of the playoffs would be a significant disappointment, that may be lot more likely than many imagined.
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