A Packers Win In San Francisco Begins With Turnovers and Tackling

The Green Bay Packers defeated the Dallas Cowboys 48–32 this past Sunday, and they were jubilant. However, they play the San Francisco 49ers, the best team in the NFC, next week. The Packers have always had the upper hand against the Cowboys; in their last five meetings, Green Bay has an eye-catching 5-0 record. On the other hand, the Niners have been more of a scary opponent. In their last five meetings, Matt LaFleur and the Packers have gone 2-3 against them, including two devastating playoff losses in 2019 and 2021.

There’s reason to be wary of the 49ers. By many statistical measures, they’re the top offense in the NFL and have a top-10 defensive unit. The 49ers feature four offensive players – Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey – who went over 1,000 all-purpose yards this season (the Packers have zero). The Niners also lead the league in interceptions, are top-10 in sacks, and allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the league. It’s no surprise that many sportsbooks have the 49ers as 9.5-point favorites.

That does not imply that the Packers are unbeatable. Green Bay can take advantage of the flaws in the Niners. A crucial factor in the game will be the turnover margin. The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective states that winning teams win 69.6% of the time when they have a greater turnover margin.

San Francisco’s record for the year, as determined by their turnover margin performance, is as follows:

Specifically, in San Francisco’s double-digit losses to the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, the 49ers had a turnover differential of minus two, giving both opponents short fields on which to score points as a result of turnovers. During the Ravens game, Brock Purdy recorded four interceptions.

Brock Purdy All 4 Interceptions Week 16 San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens NFL Christmas 2023 Purdy was the MVP favorite heading into the game. Game featured top seeds of each conference, who were both 11-3 headed into the game.

Baltimore’s attention to detail and aggressiveness are two takeaways from watching that game. The Ravens’ defensive backs are flying around, everyone on their team is looking to tip a ball to create an opportunity for a turnover, and their defensive line is constantly fighting against a tough 49ers offensive line to create pressure. That could be Green Bay’s blueprint to win, and we saw a similar performance for most of the Dallas game. Darnell Savage and Jaire Alexander were aggressive and playing downhill, resulting in interceptions. The Packers may have to rely on that again on Sunday.

From an offensive perspective, the game will likely come down to turnovers. A reporter asked Kyle Shanahan what he thought was the key to Green Bay’s turnaround from a 3-6 record to making the playoffs. “Probably not turning it over,” he said, “When you don’t turn it over, no matter what happens, you’ll have a chance to win in every game, and the fact they’ve only had one pick in 10 games is unbelievable.”

A significant component of that is Jordan Love’s increased ease of use in the offense. He needs to be able to spot coverages and pressure and capitalize on them without endangering the ball. Love’s ability to execute a max protect look on an all-out blitz against Dallas and find Dontayvion Wicks for a score was praised by LaFleur. In order to win the turnover fight and score points against the 49ers’ formidable defense, Love’s ability to recognize and control pressure while attacking coverages will be essential.

Effective tackling is the final component of the jigsaw. The 49ers are the best club in the NFL with 6.6 yards after the catch. They frequently break tackles, are adept at moving through space, and wreak havoc on defenses. Green Bay’s defense may choose to rely on Quay Walker (83.1).

In the end, it should come as no surprise that the Niners are well favored because they have superior talent than the Packers on paper. However, the Packers have a formula to defeat the 49ers and go to the NFC Championship game if they perform like they did in Dallas.

 

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