3 reasons why the Dallas Cowboys can’t move on from Dak Prescott

Ahead of a sudden decline in health, the Dallas Cowboys make a risky decision about their quarterback.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass during pre-game workouts before the first half of a NFL football game against the Denver Broncos at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX on Sunday, November 7, 2021. (John F. Rhodes / Special Contributor)

3 reasons why the Dallas Cowboys can’t move on from Dak Prescott

The devastating Wild Card loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday did not alleviate the Dallas Cowboys’ playoff problems. Many Cowboys supporters shouted for the team to part ways with quarterback Dak Prescott and head coach Mike McCarthy as they exited AT&T Stadium.

McCarthy most likely won’t ever go back to Dallas. There are more qualified head coaches available than in previous years, including win-now coaches who are a perfect fit for the Cowboys. But letting go of Prescott is a whole other ballgame.

These three factors explain why the Cowboys are unable to let go of Prescott.

Ahead of a sudden decline in health, the Dallas Cowboys make a risky decision about their quarterback.

Dak Prescott contract erases Cowboys’ leverage

Prescott’s contract has always been a storyline for Dallas. After completing his rookie contract, the former fourth-round pick was hit with the franchise tag for the first time in 2020, providing him with a fully guaranteed salary of $31.4 million. After suffering a season-ending ankle fracture, Prescott was hit with the exclusive franchise tag for the second consecutive season. The Cowboys’ front office put Prescott in a position with all the leverage and he took advantage.

The four-year deal he signed was restructured in 2022 and 2023. As a result, Prescott will have the second-highest cap hit in 2024. Dallas can’t afford to keep him at that near $60 million figure, not with its impending free agents and limited cap space.

The Cowboys also can’t trade Prescott without his approval because of his no-trade clause. Prescott knows the organization is backed into a corner, they need to spread out his cap hit and a contract extension is the only way for that to happen. He can’t be traded and cutting him would leave a $61.9 million dead cap charge. An extension is the only realistic option.

Dallas Cowboys don’t have the assets to trade up for a top QB prospect

One option frequently suggested by fans when they’ve become fed up with their team’s quarterback play is to trade up for one of the top draft-eligible quarterbacks. The 2024 NFL Draft does have three no-doubt talents at the position, but Dallas can’t realistically afford to move up for one of them.

Putting aside the fact that the top three teams in the draft order all need quarterbacks, the cost of moving up to get one isn’t in the Cowboys’ price range. Dallas would still be stuck with Prescott’s 2024 cap hit and it would need to surrender unprecedented draft capital to make a deal happen.

Using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft trade value chart, the Cowboys would need to sacrifice first-round picks in 2024, 2025 and 2026 along with second-round picks in 2024-’26 as a starting point to move from 24th overall to No. 3 for Jayden Daniels. With all of the holes on the Cowboys’ defense and offense, that’s just not something this franchise can afford to do.

There’s a reason “Playoff Dak” was trending. Prescott has thrown an interception every year the Cowboys have made the playoffs. Turnovers are the best way to ruin a shot at the Super Bowl and going nearly 30 years without an NFC Championship Game appearance has understandably frustrated fans and team owner Jerry Jones.

With that said, reality must still be accounted for. Prescott’s success in the regular season is one of the biggest reasons why the Cowboys keep racking up 12-win seasons. This is the same quarterback who ranks fourth in EPA per play (0.179), tied with Tom Brady and ahead of Lamar Jackson (0.130), Jalen Hurts (0.142) and Joe Burrow (0.138) since the 2020 season, all while posting the third-highest Success rate (51.9 percent) and the eighth-best completion rate over expectation (+2.1).

Prescott isn’t the best quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin. Naturally, players like Burrow, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, and Patrick Mahomes aren’t available. Regarding the other quarterbacks for the franchise, Justin Herbert has only once led the Los Angeles Chargers to the postseason, Trevor Lawrence is equally dangerous, and Brock Purdy plans to remain in San Francisco.

Supporters who wish for the Cowboys to let go of Prescott in 2024 should understand that doing so would be welcoming quarterback hell to Dallas for an extended period of time.

Dallas might be fortunate enough to find a better quarterback, but it’s much more likely that the team would suffer through quarterback purgatory for the same amount of years as the Chicago Bears, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, and Los Angeles Rams. It’s painful to lose in the playoffs every year, but it’s worse to go into every NFL season believing your team won’t even make it.

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