Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Cowboys
After winning three straight games, the Green Bay Packers advanced to the postseason, but they haven’t faced a team quite like the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys went 12-5 overall, with an 8-0 record at home.
They led in scoring at the end, scoring 37.4 points more at home than away. Dak Prescott, the NFL’s top receiver, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons, a game-changing defence, are their quarterback candidates. There are several reasons why the Packers are a seven-point underdog at FanDuel Sportsbook (it opened at eight), and we’ll discuss them all on Sunday. These three factors will make them successful.
1. GOTTA LOVE A COOL QUARTERBACK
Jordan Love will be making his playoff debut. He’s on one of those Aaron Rodgers-esque rolls with 18 touchdowns vs. one interception over the final eight games. In three must-win games to end the regular season, Love delivered seven touchdown passes (plus two touchdown runs), zero interceptions and almost 800 passing yards.
After the trade of Rodgers, love was unwavering. For his first game at Chicago, he was composed. Even after the Packers dropped their first four games of the season and their next two in December, he remained composed. In the chaos of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota, he was a ruthless killer. When he takes the field for the first time on Sunday, there is no reason to anticipate anything different. I’ll remain the same, Love declared.
“Every game, I got through a checklist of what I tell myself, things to try to tell myself to relax, calm down, see the game, let it come to me and just focus on all the little details that I can focus on, control what I can control. So, I don’t think it will be any different than any other game. Obviously, it will be an away game, it will be a loud environment. So, just trying to get my feet and get settled into the game will be huge.”
Especially early in Brett Favre’s career, then-coach Mike Holmgren had to get his excitable future MVP settled into games. That won’t be necessary for coach Matt LaFleur. With Love and his multitude of young, talented and underrated weapons, expect Love to be unleashed against a Cowboys
defense that finished fifth in completion percentage and yards, sixth in passer rating, eighth in interceptions and ninth in yards per attempt.
“Jordan’s a pretty even-keeled guy but, on gameday, he’s still pretty chill, but you can see the fire in his eyes, which is pretty cool,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “However, you always want to get the quarterback going early in a game, get him some completions, and get him excited, and then you can watch what happens.”
2. NO. 11 IS NO. 1 RECEIVER
Last week, Bears safety Jaquan Brisker made headlines when he essentially called the Packers’ receivers a bunch of nobodies. Just because the Packers have “no stars” at receiver now doesn’t mean they don’t have future stars. Jayden Reed might be that player. A second-round pick, Reed has been sensational. He smashed Sterling Sharpe’s franchise rookie record with 64 catches. In the process, he became the first rookie in NFL history with at least 60 receptions, 750 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns, 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Among this year’s rookies, Reed ranked sixth in receptions, fifth with 793 receiving yards and second with eight touchdowns. Among rookies who were targeted at least 25 times, he was fourth in catch percentage (71.1) and yards per route (2.04), according to Pro Football Focus.
Reed could be the big mismatch for Jordan Love on Sunday. Among all receivers, Reed in the slot ranked seventh with 44 receptions, third with 653 yards and second with seven touchdowns. “He can do it all,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “You can put him anywhere. He’s just a baller, and you want to get the ball in his hands however you can, and we’ve got a lot of them.”
The Cowboys have two excellent corners with All-Pro DaRon Bland, the NFL leader in interceptions and pick-sixes, and veteran Stephon Gilmore. However, of 32 defensive backs to play at least 200 snaps of slot coverage, the Cowboys’ Jourdan Lewis ranked 25th with 1.33 yards per coverage snaps, according PFF. He allowed four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 69.8 percent completion rate, good for a 115.0 passer rating.
3. DOMINANT RED ZONE
On the field, the Cowboys have an edge over everyone else. Not in the red zone, though. With regard to offensive efficiency, Green Bay ranked first when it came to goal-to-go scenarios (95.0 percent touchdowns, which may be the highest in NFL history), but 19th in the red zone (51.6 percent touchdowns). In terms of defence, Dallas finished 20th in the red zone (56.3%) and 27th (80.0%).
During the second half of the season, Jordan Love threw 14 touchdowns (behind only Dak Prescott’s 15) with zero interceptions. Those touchdowns were spread between eight players, led by Christian Watson’s four. Dallas on offense ranked 14th in the red zone (56.3 percent) and 26th in goal-to-go (64.1 percent). Green Bay on defense ranked ninth in the red zone (50.9 percent) and 13th in goal-to-go (70.4 percent).
With eight red-zone sacks, the Packers came in second, topped by Kenny Clark’s three. Between them, Minnesota and Chicago were a combined 1 of 5 in the red zone during the last two regular season games. Replicating that kind of success will be crucial. The Cowboys will undoubtedly move the ball. Can the Packers keep the harm to field goals to a minimum?
“We’re comfortable in what we’re doing and guys are simply making plays,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “Teams can have fantastic rushes when they toss the ball, but problems arise if there are gaps in the coverage, and vice versa. We’ve played really well off one another down there. The timing and coverage have worked incredibly well together, and the results are clear.
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