The McCarthy Chronicles: Cowboys offer hope for playoff run despite loss
The Cowboys’ latest road setback won’t change the perception that this team is incapable of winning away from home. However, the truth is that not every loss is the same. The Cowboys’ embarrassing road loss in Buffalo a week ago raised serious doubts about their capacity for road victory. However, when looking at things objectively, their performance against the Dolphins and the way they lost don’t raise the same kind of questions.
The reason why this narrative is even a talking point, though, is because of the high odds that Dallas will have to go on the road for the entirety of the postseason. Their odds of winning the NFC East have been gradually declining each week, and the Eagles’ win on Monday – narrow as it was – didn’t do the Cowboys any favors.
Technically speaking, the Cowboys do still have a shot at both the division title and the top spot in the conference. They still need another loss from the Eagles, in addition to winning their final two games. Right now, the odds of the Cowboys winning the NFC East sit at 17% according to the New York Times’ playoff simulator. Their odds of getting the top seed in the NFC is even lower, at 1%, as they’d need two more losses from the 49ers on top of the Eagles struggles.
In other words… so you’re saying there’s a chance?
The overwhelming likelihood is that the Cowboys fall short of a division title and secure the fifth seed, going on the road to face the winner of the NFC South. That may not seem like a particularly daunting task, but the divisional round would bring a more challenging matchup for sure, likely a road trip to Philadelphia or San Francisco. Of course, the Cowboys have lost in both those places this season.
Which is why their road record is so worrisome to some. Mike McCarthy has successfully turned this team into a group that protects its home turf and wins its divisional games, which is often a recipe for success. And sure enough, McCarthy is about to take this team to the playoffs for the third straight year, a level of consistency this franchise hasn’t seen since the 90’s.
The problem that McCarthy has run into, though, is a division rival with an extremely aggressive general manager that has kept his organization loaded with talent. In most other settings, McCarthy would have already clinched his third straight division title; in fact, that’s exactly what he did for much of his time in Green Bay. Another issue that McCarthy is running into is the general dominance of the 49ers, a problem that almost every other NFC team has experienced lately as well.
Still, the biggest question facing the Cowboys right now is whether or not they stand a chance against playoff-caliber teams on the road. Against the Dolphins, they absolutely proved they could compete in such a setting. The Dolphins are one of the best teams in the league and have been for most of the season. Their offense is highly explosive and efficient, and the defense has been rounding into form over the last two months.
On Sunday, the Cowboys faced up against this team’s finest iteration, and they were competitive. Although they didn’t dominate, McCarthy’s offense did have several strong plays. They moved the chains consistently and scored some chunk plays early on, demonstrating their exceptional effectiveness. Then, for a spell, the Miami defense had the upper hand and forced multiple poor plays. However, the offense found its rhythm once more, averaging 5.4 yards per play and scoring on each of their final three drives. Most importantly, Dak Prescott came through when they needed him most, leading a winning drive in the latter stages of the game.
The defense ultimately fell apart on their final drive, getting run over and letting the Dolphins set up an easy field goal to win the game, but they had been really good prior to that. Facing an offense that seemingly had the ideal personnel to beat Dan Quinn’s defense, Dallas only surrendered one touchdown and otherwise limited them to field goals. That’s a winning performance most weeks.
This game was a lot like the Cowboys’ defeat in Philadelphia. The game was really tight and came down to the very last play. The result could have been reversed with a few crucial plays here and there. However, this loss to the Dolphins should give the Cowboys confidence that they can take on any team on the road and have a puncher’s chance if their defeat to the Eagles gave them hope that they could defeat them in the following game, which they did in convincing fashion only a few weeks later.
You will only get confidence up until the playoffs begin and the Cowboys travel to play a playoff team. Although the result was not what was intended, McCarthy’s team bounced back from a terrible defeat with a performance that should give them the confidence they need to consider a postseason push.
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