49ers-Ravens and other Monday Night betting odds, picks, tips

Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night with three games on Christmas Day, including one of the biggest matchups of the year as the Baltimore Ravens play the San Francisco 49ers. Aside from that game, the Las Vegas Raiders face the Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Giants play the Philadelphia Eagles.

What can we expect from a betting standpoint?

Betting analysts Eric Moody, Seth Walder, Tyler Fulghum and Aaron Schatz provide their thoughts.

Ravens at 49ers (-6, 46.5). Are you sold on the 49ers as the best team in the NFL, and how are you betting this game?

Schatz:I’m rooting for the Baltimore Ravens since they rank higher in my DVOA stats than any other advanced measure. Still, because of certain matchups, I am leaning toward the 49ers in this game. For instance, according to DVOA, Baltimore has the best run offense, but the 49ers’ run defense has been stronger in the second half of the year.

San Francisco boasts the strongest pass defense in the NFL against middle passes, and Lamar Jackson throws 25% of his passes in the middle of the field, which is among the highest percentages in the league. The San Francisco offensive is set up to force you to play base, but the Ravens defense gives up 0.8 more yards per play in base than in nickel. The 49ers’ defense has been the best in the league since Week 10, while the Ravens’ defense has only been ranked eleventh.49ers -6 because everything is trending in their favor.

Fulghum: Since coming out of their Week 9 bye, the San Francisco 49ers have won six consecutive games by 12 points or more. Over the past 25 years, only the 1999 Rams (7) and the 2007 Patriots (8) can say they’ve done that (h/t @benbbaldwin on X). Those are literally two of the greatest football teams of all time. The 2023 49ers are trending towards a similar historical legacy. The Ravens are a fantastic football team, but there’s not really anything that’s going to stop me from betting on San Francisco at the moment. 49ers -6.

Walder: I’m just on a prop —Roquan Smith over 3.5 assists (+115). Baltimore’s run defense isn’t quite as good as its pass defense, and certainly the 49ers are comfortable running the ball. All those runs are more likely to result in assists, where multiple players are credited with the tackle. Smith certainly will be a huge part of the Ravens run-stopping effort, and my tackle model forecasts 4.6 assists for him.

Brock Purdy (-215) is now a big favorite to win MVP, with Lamar Jackson (+450), Dak Prescott (+650), Christian McCaffrey (+1000) and Josh Allen (+1000) rounding out the top five candidates. How are you betting the MVP race entering Week 16?

Fulghum: Do you believe that on Sunday, the 49ers will be defeated by the Ravens? If so, let me share this betting method with you: Put a wager on Lamar Jackson to win MVP (+450). Why? That is, if he can defeat the 49ers. The pricing on the Ravens money line is +210. If a Ravens win makes Lamar Jackson the overwhelming favorite to win MVP, why would you buy the ticket at +210 when the value is +450? The same result as against San Francisco, but a far better return on investment (assuming Lamar plays well through the end of the schedule).

Walder: I could be wrong, but I still think there will be resistance to Purdy winning given his offensive play caller and all the talent around him. I’m also very skeptical of Jackson. He enters Sunday ranked eighth in QBR; the Ravens are a great team because of their defense. So instead, my favorite bets are Josh Allen (+1000) and Dak Prescott (+650), in that order.

They rank third and second in QBR, and while both are underdogs to win their divisions, they each have at least a 30% shot to do so, per FPI. I think if one of their teams can pull that off, they’ll win MVP.

Giants at Eagles (-13.5, 43.5). What’s your favorite bet for this game?

Schatz: Don’t get fooled by Tommy DeVito’s comeback against the Packers a couple weeks ago. The Giants are one of the weakest offenses in the NFL this year — 31st in DVOA. Yes, the Eagles are only 23rd, but that pass rush is getting after DeVito. The Eagles and Giants are also two of the slower-paced offenses in the league, which means fewer points. I’ll take UNDER 43.5.

Moody: D’Andre Swift over 64.5 rushing yards. He has surpassed this line in three of his past five games. In Week 15, Swift had 18 rushing attempts against the Seahawks, and he should see a significant workload against the Giants as well.

This season, New York’s defense has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game. The spread suggests that the Eagles will be playing with a lead.

Walder: Josh Sweat over 0.5 sacks (+110). Tommy DeVito has an obscene 16% sack rate. The sample is small still, yes, but he sure looks like an attractive quarterback for opposing pass-rushers to face. Enter Sweat, who has only 6.5 sacks this year but does have the third-fastest pass rush get-off (0.72 seconds to cross the line of scrimmage) among players with at least 200 pass rushes, behind only Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson. I put the over all the way at -155.

Raiders at Chiefs (-10.5, 40.5). What’s your favorite bet for this game?

Schatz: The Raiders rank 30th against passes in the middle of the field, and we know who lives there for the Kansas City Chiefs, don’t we? They also rank 23rd in DVOA against tight ends. Travis Kelce had 91 yards when these teams faced each other a few weeks ago and I think we can go Kelce OVER 65.5 receiving yards for this game.

Moody: Patrick Mahomes over 265.5 passing yards. He’s surpassed this line in two of his past games.

Having Mahomes and Rashee Rice in sync bodes well for the Chiefs’ passing game. Also, Kansas City has a guy named Travis Kelce who can help out. Mahomes has averaged 303.5 passing yards per game against the Raiders in his career.

Is there anything else you’re playing on Monday?

Moody: A.J. Brown over 74.5 receiving yards. In Week 15, Brown had 56 receiving yards against the Seahawks, but he had 94 and 114 yards against the Cowboys and 49ers the previous two weeks. Brown had more than 10 targets in each of those games and should have a busy day against the Giants on Monday, especially with DeVonta Smith dealing with a knee injury.

In two career games against the Giants, Brown has averaged 82.5 receiving yards per game.

Moody: Rashee Rice over 67.5 receiving yards. He’s been the Chiefs’ lone bright spot among receivers this season.

In three of his four games, Rice has gone above and beyond this line. Additionally, he has at least nine targets in four straight games. Rice is quite good at seeing holes in the defense’s coverage. Rice has a good chance of winning this game because the Raiders employ a bend rather than a break defense. Las Vegas permits a lot of yards after the catch as well. The only other receivers with more yards after the catch than Rice are Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase.

Moody: Darius Slayton over 27.5 receiving yards. The Eagles’ secondary allows opponents the sixth-highest amount of throwing yards per game. The Giants, who are a massive underdog, will need to rely on their passing attack. In games with six or more targets this season, Slayton has averaged 57.0 receiving yards per contest.

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